Posted on 10/08/2020 7:34:41 AM PDT by bort
I analogize Democrat early voting numbers (VBM) to a Corvette equipped with a rebuilt Pinto engine underneath the hood. Looks great on the outside, but underneath the hood....well, the Democrats have problems.
Bad news: Out of 420K VBM ballots returned by NC voters, Dems 52% (218K), Reps 17% (72K), and Una 30% (130K). Looks bad for Trump? Right?
Good news: According to Target Smart (see link), which does a "party roll up score" for all voters in NC--in other words, they "model" every voter to determine that voter's likely voting history, e.g., a white male Democrat in rural NC who owns a gun is modeled a "Republican", etc., Republicans are doing great:
Democrats: 241,920 (61.5%)
Republicans: 123,398 (31.4%)
Unknown: 27,805 (7.1%)
In other words, while Democrats have returned their VBM ballots at a 3 to 1 rate compared to Republicans, Biden likely leads the early vote by only 2:1. In other words, the VBM ballots are being returned disproportionately by older, whiter, and more conservative voters than the Democrat universe as a whole. The black VBM turnout in NC is abysmal DESPITE a ton of money spent by Dem-aligned PACs to encourage VBM for black voters.
And now they have a Senate candidate who is sexting their chances down the drain.
Ping
Not certain older voters will vote for Trump. There are some so paranoid about COVID that they’ll give up every freedom Americans have ever had in exchange for a chance to have mandatory masks!
Good point. We don’t actually know who the VBM ballots were cast for. However, what we do know is that the Democrats who have voted so far are much older, whiter, rural, and more conservative than the Dem voter file as a whole. This is great news for Trump.
I’m in rural NC, and see Trump signs and flags where’s there’s never been signs before...and not just a few here and there, but jamb-packed.
If there isn’t a noticeable drop-off in in-person voting among Democrat seniors, blacks voters, etc., I’ll eat my shorts.
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Ha, ha. There’s an expression I haven’t heard since college days.
BTW, Florida TargetSmart numbers are great, also. Roughly 900K VBM ballots cast in Florida. As Speedy noted, the Dems lead Reps in returns roughly 52-30. TargetSmart has the party roll-up score as 55% to 38%.
And a guy on Beck tore Rasmussen’s latest poll apart...he said he had to enroll to get the dynamics and found out they have Trump 12 points behind - and in the poll, they assume he’ll only get 76% of Republican votes - he got 88% ;last time with a LOT of Republican/Conservative pundits not on board...IOW, he has to get 12 points fewer Repub votes this time in order for their 12 point deficit to be on the same planet.
Will sexting result in rejexting?
How will the quickie-mart voters break with Kamala as the VP?
Good stuff Bort!
“in the poll, they assume he’ll only get 76% of Republican votes - he got 88% ;last time with a LOT of Republican/Conservative pundits not on board...IOW, he has to get 12 points fewer Repub votes this time in order for their 12 point deficit to be on the same planet.”
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Trump’s covid doesn’t change the way people will vote. It changed his supporters willingness to participate in a poll at that time.
People’s Pundit pollster said that you don’t go from +1 to -12 like Rasmussen did so quickly from changing opinion. Public opinion doesn’t work like that. He thinks because of the covid virus its possible Rasmussen hit “response bias” in the Rasmussen poll. “Response bias is when voters and their party do not want to participate in polls and surveys because there is bad news for their guy. He wasn’t getting accurate people, to tell you the truth.” This was a failed poll because of the crisis.
Pollsters are having a very hard time polling this year. Response rates are down to 1% at Trafalgar. And republicans are 5 times more likely to say no to polls in general. Trump supporters even more likely to avoid disclosing who they plan to vote for.
You nailed it
Also you probably have seen this but 75% of the ballots returned are from 2016 voters. Very few new voters.
No, I didn’t notice that, but that’s a good number for Trump. Thanks for pointing that out. BTW, according to TargetSmart, they have the race breakdown in NC as 77% white (!), 16% black, 7% unknown/other. Obama won NC by 1 point in 2008 when blacks made up 23% of the electorate and whites made up below 70%. In Florida, blacks make up 10.7 % of the VBM ballots. When Obama won FL, black share of the electorate was 13/14%..... AND this election many Republicans strongholds mailed out VBM on 10/1, whereas Broward, Palm Beach, etc. mailed on 9/24. Expect black share of VBM ballot returns to fall even further as Republican counties report.
I checked on absentee ballot delivery in NC with the board of election losers. No way i am letting the USPS criminals touch it. You can apparently vote in person even with absentee already delivered. IF, I’d have to turn that in at voting place I would not do, as the election board criminals will simply add it the their Dem ballot harvesting bin. So, I’m voting in person AND not letting the absentee outta my possesion
I think we all understand now why the Demcorats/media are pushing their obnoxious “Trump is a white supremacist” mantra and having Michelle Obama go out and make a fool of herself. Early indications—including this latest tidbit from Indy—are that Dems are struggling with black voters. The only exception I see is Georgia where a well-funded black senate candidate is running.
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