Yeah, but PT is ahead on OH an GA. He only needs NC, FL, WS ,and one midwest state. He can lose nationally by 4.5 pts, and still win the E.C!
Arizona.
Best case is a repeat of 2016 where the popular vote is against Trump (almost certainly even more so than 2016) but the Electoral College is all that matters, for now, and he does get to 270.
Trump damn well BETTER be ahead in Ohio and Georgia though some signs indicate that it’s far from a certainty, and those 2 plus Florida at least have Republican Governors in charge which (somehow) may reduce the Democrat capacity for vote fraud.
But the other large swing states are a big problem, and they are all controlled by Democrats who have already stated (in different words) that they will impose no limit to post-Nov. 3 fraud: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina are top of the list. Courts have intervened, for now, to impose time limits for fraud in Wisconsin, but not the others AFAIK.
Then there are states Trump won in 2016 that aren’t as prominent as the big ones but every bit as dicey (Arizona, Iowa) to say the least. The path to 270 is obvious and doable, but the polls — even the ones that we’re allowed to believe here, forget the others — aren’t very warm and fuzzy at the moment.
Trump is not ahead in Ohio and Georgia. He is down about 2-3 points in OH per the averages and is down less than a point (essentially tied) in Georgia.