Posted on 10/01/2020 12:00:14 PM PDT by bort
I preface this post by cautioning that it is still too early to draw firm conclusions from mail-in requests, but North Carolina numbers at this time look promising. Superficially, the Democrats appear to have the upper-hand: 150K Dem/ 47K Rep/ 82K Una mail- in ballots returned. Democrats have also been turning their ballots in at higher rate than Republicans. The good news is that the Democrats appear to be overwhelmingly cannibalizing their election day vote, which is occurring because Democrat PACS/DNC have been pounding their voters to vote by mail b/c of the China Virus. Meanwhile, Republicans may be holding on to their mail-in ballots to cast them in-person. Continued below..
2) 7% of black mail-in ballots are from those who were registered to vote in 2016 and did not vote (The bulk of mail-ins by black voters are from those who voted early -in-person in 2016). Interestingly, 7% of all Republicans who have mailed in ballots sat out the 2016 election. Only 5% of ballots cast by Democrats as a whole are from those who sat out 2016.
3) The rejection rate for mail-ins by blacks (no witness, signature missing, etc.) is 5% (!) compared to 2% for white ballots. Yet despite this disparity, shockingly Democrats as a whole are slightly LESS likely to have their ballots rejected. So if blacks (and younger voters) are the Democrat base and they screw up their ballots at very high rates, how can DEMOCRATS be getting LESS ballots rejected? Answer: This Democrat pool of mail-in voters is obviously much OLDER and WHITER than NC Democrats as a group, which means it contains a healthy chunk of cross-over Trump voters. Discuss...
Ping.
Lots of North Carolina Democrats vote Republican and no North Carolina Republicans vote Democrat.
Good work! Can’t wait until one-stop early voting starts October 15th.
Yep, because they picked a candidate who can't form a complete sentence without help from a hidden communications device or a teleprompter. Yep, that's who the Democrats want running the country...an automaton who acts like a puppet to every whim of the Deep State.
Excellent work. More posts like this one please. You might also consider writing that up as a quick article for Townhall or such.
So about 16% of NC registered voters have requested an absentee ballot vs 35% in FL.
I guess NC residents aren’t afraid of in person voting.
Here is a quote from Dr. Bitzer: “So are registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters “cannibalizing” their voters who are likely to cast ballots? That’s one way to look at it”
“The good news is that the Democrats appear to be overwhelmingly cannibalizing their election day vote”
Is the same thing happening in Florida?
This is the same nationwide. Dems are voting absentee in large numbers because of the pandemic. Reps win on election day.
“””This is the same nationwide. Dems are voting absentee in large numbers because of the pandemic. Reps win on election day.”””
Problem is all of the NetWorks will NOT project DJT the winner, they will ALL say we have to count the votes first.
I think blacks are going to be a big disappointment to democrats this year. They understandably lack enthusiasm for Biden (as do democrats in general.) And they do not have the same degree of animosity to Trump as many democrats do because they have fared so much better under Trump the last 4 years than they did under the previous black administration.
I think Trump will get a higher percent of black voters this time; but I also think the black vote will be down overall.
Bottom line: Not mad enough at Trump; not excited enough about Biden.
Bottom line: Not mad enough at Trump; not excited enough about Biden.
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You are correct. Black men are ok with Trump. Black women are the most frightened of the China Virus. That is a recipe for low black turnout.
I guess NC residents aren’t afraid of in person voting.
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No, they ARE afraid. That’s what is driving the large number of mail-ins. The Democrat base is far more likely to fear China Virus than Republicans. I expect very low turnout among black voters.
“No, they ARE afraid.”
Fair. I guess FL Dems are just more afraid.
Interesting isn’t it....democrats harped nonstop on covid and the 200,000 dead in their attempt to discredit Trump (who has actually done a great job on the virus) and it turns out that effort on their part has created the unwarranted panic that will discourage their voter turnout. You’ve got to love “karma”...:-)
How do they make sure that they don’t mail in, especially at the last minute and also show up to vote? Is there a check system?
I’ll be voting on election day in NC as an Unaffiliated. Many of my friends also left the (R)ino party out of frustration several years ago.
Florida has a lot of snowbirds, like me, with homes in Florida AND in another state. So, the rate of regular, normal absentee ballots is high.
And the pandemic has knee-capped Dem voter registration drives and their ground game.
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