Posted on 09/30/2020 5:43:40 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
And the pace quickens...
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
2.5% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
2.2% of REP ballots have been returned and 2.9% of DEM ballots have been returned.
09/30/20: REPs - 36,075, DEMs - 70,349, lead of 34,274 for DEMs, 53.3% to 27.3%
09/29/20: REPs - 9,330, DEMs - 18,190, lead of 8,860 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.5%
09/28/20: REPs - 2,272, DEMs - 3,555, lead of 1,283 for DEMs, 47.7% to 30.5%
09/27/20: REPs - 2,165, DEMs - 3,411, lead of 1,246 for DEMs, 47.9% to 30.4%
09/26/20: REPs - 1,983, DEMs - 3,184, lead of 1,201 for DEMs, 48.2% to 30.0%
09/25/20: REPs - 754, DEMs - 1,673, lead of 919 for DEMs, 55.0% to 24.8%
10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs
In 1 more day, I can show a “similar time frame to 2016” on a daily basis.
ping
There are about 5 million registered Rs and 5.2 million registered Ds in FL.
About 2.3 million VBM ballots were sent to Ds.
About 1.6 million VBM ballots were sent to Rs.
In 2016, 79.6% of R VBM ballots were returned and 74.1% for D.
Do you have demographic breakdowns for these numbers? Age, sex, race? What percentage are super-voters and what percentage have rarely voted in the past? Thanks.
Enthusiasm gap goes to Democrats
“Enthusiasm gap goes to Democrats”
Wrong, Wrong, Wrong. Did I say Wrong.
The DEMs want to vote absentee because of the pandemic. Biden has ZERO enthusiasm.
Trump voters, as a matter of principle, want to vote in person.
These #’s are a disaster, there’s no handwaving it away. 27% in the already returned? If Trump wins by 10% on election day it’ll be tough to beat this.
All depends on the turnout.
Don’t have that info yet. Daniel Smith (@electionsmith) usually gives breakdown of FL voters. So far nothing from him. He did post this a few days ago.
“As of this morning, 4,657 valid mail-in ballots cast in Florida. Another 101 with no signature on the return envelope & 28 with a voter-caused error. Plenty of time to cure you VBM ballot as long as you’re informed by your SOE.
Of the 101 with no signatures, 58 Ds, 21 Rs, 17 NPAs”
That is 129/4657 = 2.7%.
Dems are cannibalizing their in person voting. You will see.
I think we have to be careful comparing numbers from this year to 2016. The Democrats have made a concerted effort to have their voters vote by Mail, so unlike past years, it’s possible the Rs won’t be on top of the VBM ballots this year.
53.3% to 27.3%
Looks like 53% is Rep/Dem ration. What is the 27%?
53.3% to 27.3%
53% of VBM ballots returned have been by Democrats. 27% of ballots returned have been by Republicans. 20% of returned ballots have been by unaffiliated.
Thanks. I just read an article that stated that in 2018, minorities in North Carolina accounted for 40% (!) of all spoiled mail-in ballots, and that was in a primary election. Democrat PACS have been pushing minority voters in NC to vote-by-mail but....then they saw that these votes were being flagged/rejected by a 5 to 1 margin vs. white voters. So now they have done an about-face and are encouraging minorities to vote in person. They have even purchased masks, gloves, face shields, etc. BTW, there have been big headlines about the huge Democrat mail-in request advantage. There has been radio silence, however, on the important demographic information: race and age.
I’ve seen DU claim that 1m votes have been mailed, overall that’s a lot lower than I’d expect this time and might not really even matter. That’s what, 8% of the total? And the mail votes will almost certainly go 75% biden.. It’s really going to be interesting and nervously close, especially if this is drawn out for a week for some reason.
Got to agree with Speedy on this. I travel across 5 different counties in west central Florida, and the enthusiasm for Trump is exceptional. Even in hard bluish/purple areas like St. Pete/Clearwater and the Brandon area southeast of Tampa, people are not afraid to show their support for Trump. Rewind 4 years, and Trump signs were hard to find in many parts outside of rural area.
There were a few predictable election results in my life. 84, 92, 2008, 2012. I’ll say 84’s the first I remember. The rest have been really close leading up, and suddenly swayed. This one will be.. interesting.
Enthusiasm gap goes to Democrats
This is an incorrect assumption on your part. FL will follow the NC pattern.
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