Posted on 09/29/2020 6:41:30 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Numbers are starting to pick up.
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
<1% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
<1% of REP ballots have been returned and <1% of DEM ballots have been returned.
09/29/20: REPs - 9,330, DEMs - 18,190, lead of 8,860 for DEMs, 53.5% to 27.5%
09/28/20: REPs - 2,272, DEMs - 3,555, lead of 1,283 for DEMs, 47.7% to 30.5%
09/27/20: REPs - 2,165, DEMs - 3,411, lead of 1,246 for DEMs, 47.9% to 30.4%
09/26/20: REPs - 1,983, DEMs - 3,184, lead of 1,201 for DEMs, 48.2% to 30.0%
09/25/20: REPs - 754, DEMs - 1,673, lead of 919 for DEMs, 55.0% to 24.8%
ping
A great Monday in voter registration land for FL. Finish my 64 county round-up and give an update later today. 6 days until books close!
While I appreciate the work, it’s meaningless without context, i.e., a percentage comparison with the 2016 numbers.
There are about 5 million registered Rs and 5.2 million registered Ds in FL.
About 2.3 million VBM ballots were sent to Ds.
About 1.6 million VBM ballots were sent to Rs.
In 2016, 79.6% of R VBM ballots were returned and 74.1% for D.
If those same percentages played out this year, that would give Ds a 430,000 VBM lead by election day. Lets see how they match up against that “target”.
In 2016, Ds led in In Person Early Voting by 247,000. This year, I think that IPEV will be closer to a draw because Ds are cannibalizing their in person voting.
Big lead for the Rats
The earliest 2016 stats I have is for 10/6/2016.
10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs
In 2 more days, I can show a “similar time frame to 2016” on a daily basis.
In 2016, REPs led in VBM counts nearly every day. The comparison won’t be pretty. But Ds are using VBM this year in unprecedented numbers because of the pandemic.
Good news, let the rats get their votes counted now, no last minute shenanigans
I think a majority of Trump voters, as a matter of principle, want to vote in person.
“I think a majority of Trump voters, as a matter of principle, want to vote in person.”
Yep.
I’m an early vote person my self. But I do In Person Early Voting. In Person Early Voting won’t start in FL until October 20th. I think IPEV will have good numbers for Rs.
Not sure why people look at it this way. To me, you can look at the history of a state and predict aprox how many votes would give you a win. Work to hit that number. Polls aren’t the right way to do it, just hit your numbers. Looking at the history Florida tends to grow very rapidly in terms of total votes and what it takes to win. Peak Obama (2008) was aprox 4.2M to win the state aprox the same (slightly lower) in 2012, Bush was 2.9M and 3.9M respectively. Trump was 4.6M and just eyeballing it I’d put 4.9M to be the winning number this year. I’m sure, if I wanted to spend the time I could match these numbers to registration numbers over each year and come up with a fairly accurate approximation as to what you’ll need to win. Work on hitting your numbers and ignore the polls.
Based Are the recent primary, I expect the republicans to significantly lead the in person early voting.
While I appreciate the work, it’s meaningless without context, i.e., a percentage comparison with the 2016 numbers.
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Quite frankly, even if we had “context,” the numbers, at this point, would be meaningless. The Democrats have been on an all-out blitz to get their people to vote by mail. Not surprisingly, a huge chunk of Democrats have requested mail-in ballots. The issue is whether Democrats are “surging” in voters or whether they are simply cannibalizing their in-person voters. In North Carolina, there is early evidence that the bulk of these vote-by-mail Democrats were almost certain to vote anyway in-person (either early or on ED). We probably need another week of these numbers to come in to be able to draw any conclusions.
very early. If it plays out like North Carolina, the democrats will start out with a bigger ballot return advantage and then we will slowly whack away at it
most counties start October 19th.
For my “joeisdone” hypothesis to be correct, we need to see approximately even R-D split in in-person early voting (even split by party registration).
If D’s maintain an early vote lead like 2016, Trump will have a hard time winning.
If R’s lead in early voting, Trump will have an easier time winning.
My prediction is Rs will lead in early in-person voting in FL and NC. The Republican denominator is now so large in both states that I expect our “surge” to start during early voting and continue into election day. I believe Bort posted the data yesterday re. cannibalization.
“I think that IPEV will be closer to a draw”
I think that is likely.
Both parties have stated equal intent (about 20% each) to early vote. It will probably be less in FL because FL has a stronger history of VBM.
If the early voting #’s really do reveal a R lead, we’re 2 steps out of 3 from an easy Trump win - the third and hardest step being hitting Election Day targets.
If you remember, FL “rules”. Every county must be open for IPEV on set days and then optionally on other days.
The optional days are mostly D counties open. I think that is dumb of R counties. Especially this year with the pandemic, I hope all R counties are open for IPEV during the optional days.
You are probably right on Oct. 19th. On my website, I have Oct 20th for stats. The stats I report on the morning of Oct. 20th would be data for Oct. 19th.
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