Posted on 09/25/2020 6:41:23 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
We kick off our 3rd election of tracking Florida early vote. The past 2 elections have seen REPs lead in vote-by-mail (VBM) returned ballots. This year because of the pandemic, it is expected DEMs will vote-by-mail in much larger numbers than previous elections. REPs need to keep the margin as close as possible and then win Florida on election day.
Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
<1% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
<1% of REP ballots have been returned and <1% of DEM ballots have been returned.
09/25/20: REPs - 1,273, DEMs - 2,386, lead of 1,113 for DEMs, 51.2% to 27.3%
10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs
And so it begins...
Florida early vote ballots started being mailed out yesterday. Within a week, we should start getting returned ballots by the tens of thousands daily.
The ballots returned so far are mostly overseas ballots.
DEMs lead was cut from 30% yesterday to 24% today.
The link should say ElectionCZAR, the website I created to track the early vote.
Division of Elections releases ballot numbers 4 times a day, I will update numbers once per day.
Do you mean overall registration lead? Or ballot request lead?
The bulk numbers compared to the percentages indicates that a LOT of democrats are voting for Trump
The numbers I’m posting are RETURNED vote by mail ballots.
Here is the raw data:
09/25/20: REPs - 1,273, DEMs - 2,386, lead of 1,113 for DEMs, 51.2% to 27.3%
10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs
I don’t understand the comparison
Comparing to the same week might make some sense, but comparing to a different week just doesn’t make sense to me
For 2016, 10/06/16 is the earliest date I have stats for.
Next week, we will catch up to a day by day comparison.
10/06/2016 = 10/01/2020 (same number of days before election)
10/07/2016 = 10/02/2020 (same number of days before election)
Yes, but many Democrats could be voting for Trump this year.
Our ballots go out September 26th in Florida so not sure how they have ballots already. Sounds suspect.
Yesterday, DEMS lead in returned ballots 55% to 25%.
Today DEMs lead in returned ballots 51% to 27%.
I didn’t post numbers yesterday because I was still setting up ElectionCZAR.com website.
I think I read ballots start being mailed out 09/24/2020 in Florida. But maybe this varies by county?
The ballots returned so far are overseas ballots. They were mailed to overseas America early.
Hopefully. The polls are all over the place. If they screwed up polling again like 2016, they need to close down polls for good. I mean they have Ohio up 5 for Biden. That’s a 15 point swing. That’s crazy in a split down the middle country.
That’s very possible. It could be overseas. And each county could send them different days but close enough not to matter much. Lake county where I live is tomorrow. But even if some were yesterday, doesn’t mean much. The only problem is the dang post office screwing up the mail day after day for the last two months. Insane! I keep getting my neighbors mail. Ugh! The birthday card I sent took 12 days one state away. This disaster has never happened before.
“Ohio up 5 for Biden.” Was that the Fox poll?
I give Fox a D+ rating for polling.
My pollster ratings are here: http://www.electionczar.com/pollsterranking.html
Change Research (CNBC) also gets a D+.
Trump needs to effectively respond to misleading but effective Biden ads.
Maybe sign up for USPS Informed Delivery if you haven’t already? Its free.
You will get an email every morning showing what mail is SUPPOSE to be delivered to your house.
I’d give Fox an F rating for polling. They are purely political propaganda designed to boost Democrat morale while suppressing GOP enthusiasm. They totally stink. Their only value might be to detect trends, so maybe that is why you give them a D+.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.