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The Senate’s Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 20 September 2020 | Nate Silver

Posted on 09/20/2020 7:26:51 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

I don’t have a particularly strong take on how the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg will affect either the presidential election or the race for control of the Senate. And I’d encourage you to avoid putting too much stock in anybody else’s take for now, too. The very earliest indication is that President Trump’s desire to move full-speed ahead toward naming Ginsburg’s replacement could be unpopular, but that’s based on only one poll.

But here’s what I do know: the Senate is an enormous problem for Democrats given the current political coalitions, in which Democrats are dominant in cities while Republicans triumph in rural areas. And because the Senate is responsible for confirming Supreme Court picks, that means the Supreme Court is a huge problem for Democrats too. Sure, Democrats might win back the Senate this year — indeed, they were slight favorites to do so before the Ginsburg news. But in the long run, they’re likely to lose it more often than not.

You can probably grasp intuitively that a legislative body which provides as much representation to Wyoming (population: 580,000) as California (population: 39.5 million) will tend to favor rural areas. But it’s a bigger effect than you might realize, so let’s run some numbers. At FiveThirtyEight, our favorite way to distinguish between urban and rural areas is based on using census tracts to estimate how many people live within a 5-mile radius of you. Based on this, we can break every person in the country down into four buckets:

Rural: Less than 25,000 people live within a 5-mile radius of you;

Exurban or small town: Between 25,000 and 100,000 people within a 5-mile radius;

Suburban or small city: Between 100,000 and 250,000 people within a 5-mile radius;

Urban core or large city: More than 250,000 people...

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: ruralstew
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1 posted on 09/20/2020 7:26:51 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Rural stew? Is that another name for possum stew? Sounds like good vittles Granny!


2 posted on 09/20/2020 7:29:57 PM PDT by rintintin
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Why do you think the democrats want to make DC and PR states?


3 posted on 09/20/2020 7:29:59 PM PDT by 2banana (Common ground with islamic terrorists-they want to die for allah and we want to arrange the meeting)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Uh oh. Rural skew. A problem to be eliminated.


4 posted on 09/20/2020 7:32:21 PM PDT by Steely Tom ([Seth Rich] == [the Democrats' John Dean])
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To: 2banana

I suspected. The answer is “NO”!


5 posted on 09/20/2020 7:32:54 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (I Love Bull Markets!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

This is the same idiot who predicted Hildabeast had a 96% chance of winning. This clown is nothing more than an attention whore with no record worthy of anything except failure.


6 posted on 09/20/2020 7:37:43 PM PDT by Fungi
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Pure bias.

It’s the Dem Party’s hatred against rural America that hurts it in the Senate.
Lots of Americans really don’t want to live in a ghetto.


7 posted on 09/20/2020 7:39:22 PM PDT by mrsmith (US MEDIA: " Every 'White' cop is a criminal! And all the 'non-white' criminals saints!")
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To: mrsmith

You obviously have a lot of white privilege not wanting to live in the ghetto hahaha


8 posted on 09/20/2020 7:42:03 PM PDT by Recovering Ex-hippie (The 2020 election Trump victory determines the fate of America and Freedom.)
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To: Fungi

Except he is right on this one.


9 posted on 09/20/2020 7:42:05 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

The composition of the Senate, and also the electoral college, is doing exactly what the founding fathers intended them to do. That is to keep large population centers from running roughshod over the rural areas. If the senate or electoral college went strictly by popular vote then we’d long ago have become a communist nation.


10 posted on 09/20/2020 7:45:46 PM PDT by GaryCrow
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel
“But here’s what I do know: the Senate is an enormous problem for Democrats given the current political coalitions, in which Democrats are dominant in cities while Republicans triumph in rural areas.”

This is not really a problem for Democrats: it is a political opportunity.

All dims need to do is recruit and fund solid American candidates to run in rural states - and support those candidates by repudiating the dim party pro-communist/pro-socialist/pro-terrorist/anti-American platform.

Just do it!

11 posted on 09/20/2020 7:53:44 PM PDT by jeffersondem
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To: Recovering Ex-hippie

In fairness, I think hr recognizes that but won’t offend his audience by saying it.

It’s a strength of our system that the feeders have political equality with the eaters.


12 posted on 09/20/2020 7:55:39 PM PDT by mrsmith (US MEDIA: " Every 'White' cop is a criminal! And all the 'non-white' criminals saints!")
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

You know, one thing they might try is to stop pushing policies that rural voters hate...


13 posted on 09/20/2020 7:57:35 PM PDT by jdege
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

He is correct on this issue.

I had long tried to understand how the Senate was ever in Democrat hands, when Democrats were so blatantly anti-rural.

There were several reasons. The most important was the Democrats (progressive media) controlled the information flow to rural people and to nearly all Americans.

Then, most farmers were beholden to the Farmer welfare system of crop price subsidies.

Now, the Progressive control over the information flow has dwindled significantly, and there are very few farmers in rural areas who are dependent on farm subsidies.

The Democrats, meanwhile, have moved very far left, and have become almost entirely a party of the urban cores.

They have almost nothing in common with rural values. They have to depend almost entirely on lying to deceive rural voters. It worked when they controlled the information flow.

They don’t control the information flow now, though they might if they gain control of the government again.


14 posted on 09/20/2020 8:00:35 PM PDT by marktwain (President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

They always drag out Wyoming, but the ‘Rats have Delaware, Vermont, R.I., Maine, & N. H. on the small state side.


15 posted on 09/20/2020 8:01:07 PM PDT by Paladin2 (need)
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To: GaryCrow

Given the DC EV situation, the Senate and the EC are not quite the same.


16 posted on 09/20/2020 8:03:05 PM PDT by Paladin2 (need)
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To: Fungi

He isn’t just smart he’s libtard smart.


17 posted on 09/20/2020 8:07:36 PM PDT by eyedigress (Nanners, put your mask on!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Repeal the 17th, and the Rats will never even sniff a Senate majority again.


18 posted on 09/20/2020 8:12:16 PM PDT by rfp1234 (Caveat Emperor)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel

He’s lying right off the bat.

I saw two that’s TWO polls showing that going ahead with the hearing is astronomical high 60.

This jerk says it’s “unpopular.”

As usual...FAKE NEWS.


19 posted on 09/20/2020 8:23:32 PM PDT by Maris Crane
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To: BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Rural: Less than 25,000 people live within a 5-mile radius of you;

I always thought I lived in a small town, guess I was wrong. Based on the criteria above I live in an extremely rural area. There is only 17,000 people in our 20,000 square mile county.

20 posted on 09/20/2020 8:27:45 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono
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