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Republicans up for reelection:

Sen. Martha McSally (Ariz.) - Lean Democratic
Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) - Toss up
Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) - Toss up
Sen. Steve Daines (Mt.) - Toss up
Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa) - Toss up
Sen. Cory Gardner (Colo.) - Toss up
Sen. David Perdue (Ga.) - Toss up
Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) - Lean Republican
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (Ga.) — Lean R
Sen. James Risch (Idaho) - Lean R
Open Kansas seat held by retiring Pat Roberts - Lean R
Sen. Dan Sullivan (Alaska) - Likely R
Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) - Likely R
Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) - Solid R
Sen. Mike Rounds (S. D.) - Solid R
Sen. Ben Sasse (Neb.) - Solid R
Sen. Bill Cassidy (La.) - Solid R
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.) - Solid R
Sen. James Inhofe (Okla.) - Solid R
Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.) - Solid R
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.V.) - Solid R
Open Tennessee seat held by retiring Lamar Alexander - Solid R
Open Wyoming seat held by retiring Mike Enzi - Solid R

” Republicans up for reelection:”

Appreciate the effort.
But what matters is the Dem Senators up for re-election,
Despite the media’s narrative it is the effect of this on the Dems that matters.

It takes 3 Rs to defeat the nominee, but only one Dem to pass.

I generally agree with your list, but I think your toss-ups are too generous. I'm adding my Senate poll model's probability of winning to it.

Sen. Martha McSally (Ariz.) - ~~Lean~~ Democratic (7.0%)
Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) - ~~Toss up~~ (18.0%)
Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) - ~~Toss up~~ (12.8%)
Sen. Steve Daines (Mt.) - ~~Toss up~~ (92.1%)
Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa) - Toss up (47.1%)
Sen. Cory Gardner (Colo.) - Toss up (no polls, 67.2% in 2014))
Sen. David Perdue (Ga.) - ~~Toss up~~ (73.5%)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) - ~~Lean Republican~~ (56.6%)
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (Ga.) — ~~Lean~~ R (98.9%)
Sen. James Risch (Idaho) - Lean R (no polls, 100% in 2014)
Open Kansas seat held by retiring Pat Roberts - Lean R (75.7%)
Sen. Dan Sullivan (Alaska) - Likely R (98.5%)
Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) - Likely R (98.9%)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) - Solid R (98.4%)
Sen. Mike Rounds (S. D.) - Solid R (no polls, 100% in 2014)
Sen. Ben Sasse (Neb.) - Solid R (no polls, 100% in 2014)
Sen. Bill Cassidy (La.) - Solid R (no polls, 100% in 2014)
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.) - Solid R (no polls, 98.1% in 2018)
Sen. James Inhofe (Okla.) - Solid R (100%)
Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.) - Solid R (no polls, 100% in 2014)
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.V.) - Solid R (no polls, 100% in 2014)
Open Tennessee seat held by retiring Lamar Alexander - Solid R (no polls, 100% in 2014)
Open Wyoming seat held by retiring Mike Enzi - Solid R (no polls, 100% in 2014)

The net result is a probability weighted average of 49.8 seats for Republicans, or a tie Senate.

Republicans need a lightning strike in the Senate to take back the initiative.

-PJ