The Media Are Lying About The Election Again; Trump has cut Biden's lead by half or more in key battlegrounds, and is on track to win again.

The Federalist ^ | 09/07/2020 | Mollie Hemingway

[SeekAndFind]

Election 2020 is shaping up to be déjà vu all over again for the news media. In an effort to help push Joe Biden over the finish line, the Washington establishment is going all-in on the easily refuted idea that there has been no change in the presidential race over the last three weeks.

“With Two Months To Go, a Steady Presidential Race,” writes Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report.

“The Latest Polls, the Great Non-Tightening: This Week in the 2020 Race,” write Astead W. Herndon and Annie Karni of The New York Times.

“In a time of disruption and unrest, the presidential race has changed little,” writes Dan Balz of the Washington Post.

After having botched the entire news coverage of the 2016 election, where all the “experts” repeatedly told the American public that Donald Trump had little to no chance of being the Republican nominee and even less a chance of being elected president, corporate media are back at it again, insisting all is well with the Biden campaign and the Democrats are safely on cruise control to take the White House and the Senate. Here’s the truth they are not telling you.

Biden has little enthusiasm for his candidacy. He is taking on an incumbent president with significant first-term accomplishments who has extremely energized supporters, to put it mildly. He had two major opportunities in August to generate some real excitement for his ticket and collect voters in must-win states for Democrats who had abandoned the ticket for Trump in 2016. Think Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Biden whiffed on both counts, picking a far-left California senator who has the farthest-left voting record of her colleagues, then hosting a convention and giving an acceptance speech where he did nothing to take on the ascending left that potential voters he needs to win have serious concerns and doubts about.

By contrast, Trump and Republicans aggressively went after traditionally Democratic Party voters among minorities, particularly African-Americans. Night after night of their convention, the Republicans made repeated heartfelt pleas from black politicians, celebrities, and everyday beneficiaries of Republican Party policies.

Republicans threw everything they had, from sound policy arguments (about recent successes Republicans have had with criminal justice reform and policies that improve job and wage growth) to emotionally compelling stories about how unchecked riots in Democratic cities harm African Americans and how Democrat control of the black vote has not been reciprocated with policy achievements that benefit their loyalty. The convention did likewise with other key voting groups that Republicans would like to draw more support from.

Since the race truly began a few weeks ago, around the time Kamala Harris was selected as Democrat nominee for vice president, it’s worth looking at some of the movement shown in markets.

On August 1, Biden had a 25-point edge in the betting odds. By September 1, Trump had completely made up that deficit and the race was even among the betting public.

In Florida, a state the Trump campaign must win, Biden’s lead of 8.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average at the end of July sits now at 1.8, with the latest poll showing President Trump with a three-point lead. Quinnipiac, a pollster that is not perceived as Trump-friendly, shows Biden’s lead plummeting 10 points, from 13 to just three.

In Pennsylvania, an absolute must-win state for the Biden campaign, Biden’s lead of 8.5 in the RealClearPolitics average near the end of July has been cut in half to 4.2. Monmouth University, again another pollster not viewed as friendly to Trump, shows Biden’s lead falling eight points, from 11 to three points.

In Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, Biden’s lead from the end of July to the end of August has been cut significantly, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Arizona is the only state where Biden’s lead has grown in the RealClearPolitics average. It should be noted that Arizona’s RCP average was significantly affected by a single outlying FOX News poll that claims Trump is down nine points in the state, which he won in 2016. CNBC, by contrast, has Biden up by only two points.

Incredibly, both NBC News and the Cook Political Report continue to rate Florida as “Lean Democrat” according to their “experts.” No offense, but do they think people are stupid? This is a state Trump won by more than one point four years ago and a state Democrats were unable to carry in 2018, when they lost both the governor and senate races. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows a 10-point momentum toward Trump, where he trails within the margin of error, where Trafalgar has the president ahead by three points. (For what it’s worth, Trafalgar was the only pollster to correctly poll key states in the 2016 and 2018 races.)

The media and the Democrats may not like it, but this race is clearly different from where it was at the end of June, where Trump’s job approval had been going down for three straight months and he bottomed out at 41 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Today Trump’s job approval is on a three-month upswing and is over 44 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Three points may not seem like a lot, but in the real world where the critical battleground states will likely be decided by less than that amount, three points are the difference between winning and losing.

So here is the cold reality the media are for some reason refusing to tell people as the country rounds Labor Day and this campaign really gets into high gear. This race is effectively tied today, Trump has momentum, and Biden is going to have to campaign hard, energize his voters, and earn it if he hopes to unseat the incumbent.

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Mollie Ziegler Hemingway is a senior editor at The Federalist. She is Senior Journalism Fellow at Hillsdale College and a Fox News contributor. She is the co-author of Justice on Trial: The Kavanaugh Confirmation and the Future of the Supreme Court.

[SeekAndFind]

The thing that alarms me is this -- every poll you see published ( with the exception of maybe Rasmussen and even this, barely ), has Joe Biden LEADING! Yeah, I know Trump is cutting into his lead, but still...WHY is Biden leading?

[Lurkinanloomin]

They are determined that we will not elect Trump again, no matter what it takes.

[albie]

To dishearten Republicans? Or to look back on when they win thru fraud?

[USS Alaska]

The thing that alarms me is this -- every poll you see published ( with the exception of maybe Rasmussen and even this, barely ), has Joe Biden LEADING! Yeah, I know Trump is cutting into his lead, but still...WHY is Biden leading?

It depends on the sample. If you over sample demonRATS, you will get the skewed results we get.

Look at the internals of the polls, and in every case, demonRATs are way over sampled.

Don't worry about the polls, they are pure bullshit.

[wny]

It’s only noteworthy when the media isn’t lying.

[Dilbert San Diego]

There have been ongoing discussions for years, about how we suspect the polls are doctored, to show the Democrats in the lead.

I recall some here have gone into the details of the polls, and found that some polls oversample Democrats. Well, if you oversample Democrats in a poll, the Democrat will be ahead in such a poll. But the poll gets reported in the media, who are reporting as if it’s a scientifically performed statistically accurate poll.

Another factor is undoubtedly the shy Trump voter, who does not want to tell some anonymous pollster that they support Trump. Results get skewed if people are not honest with a pollster. In the current environment, I can see how people would be reluctant to publicly state they support Trump. There is no corresponding reason for Biden supporters to want to conceal their support for Biden or Democrats.

[volunbeer]

There is no “one answer” to your question, but the best one is that Biden is “leading” for the same reasons Clinton was “leading” in the 2016 election.

The media lies. They lie directly or they lie by omission, but they serve their agenda first and foremost. These “polls” are paid for and even run by the media cabal.

There is very little enthusiasm for Biden. Pundits know the candidate with the most energized base typically wins.

Consider another conventional wisdom of 4 years ago..... If Trump gets double digit support among minority voters he wins.

They are telling us Biden is ahead even while they admit that Trump has unprecedented numbers with minorities? They are admitting that Trump’s base is far more energized than Biden’s?

It is either one or the other - it cannot be both. The enemedia is grudgingly admitting that Trump is ahead on every major issue for this election, yet he is behind in the national polling?

Who are you going to believe? The media or the media? Regardless, fight like your future depends on it. I don’t believe the media about anything to include polls.

[Vaduz]

The media is just like Biden every answer they select it’s always the wrong one,note history.

[hercuroc]

The bigger question is why isn’t he 50 pts ahead?
Hillary

[JBW1949]

The only poll that matters is the poll on November 3rd, 2020...

Even with that poll, we better work damned hard to stop the voter fraud that is going to occur by the democrats....It is really going to be tough this year.....

[patriotspride]

Yeah, I know Trump is cutting into his lead, but still...WHY is Biden leading?

---

Clicks of websites and reads of printed materials..

They know if they showed Trump ahead it would decrease that factor so they pump up the lead/ manipulate the outcomes, sampling, knowing more will follow...

All bait and switch designed to put $$$ into the medias hateful pockets...

[Alas Babylon!]

Not any different than 2016, is it?

Caveat that with I know they’ll cheat, but there are extraordinary efforts being put in place RIGHT NOW to stop that cheating.

How it all works out is yet to be decided; however, we can rest assured the media lies and hasn’t changed the polling hoax in 4 years.

[daler]

Flame away if you will, but when you consider that they were polling only the “popular” vote in 2016, the pollsters, at the end, really weren’t that far off.

As everyone knows, it doesn’t matter if Biden wins CA, NY and IL by a combined 20 million votes, if the president takes MI, WI and PA by a combined 200,000.

While I’m convinced the president is on his way to reelection, the belief that all of these polls are BS is, IMHO, whistling past the graveyard.

Remember, too...the campaign is really just getting underway.

[tomkat]

Biden's lead

             

[chiller]

Yesterdays CBS poll sampled 950 D / 719 I / 749 R.

I’d give credence to something with a slight D lean, but this is what ? 20%.

Useful for their agenda, but no one else.

[nwrep]

It depends on the sample. If you over sample demonRATS, you will get the skewed results we get.

This is the most important point about the polls. No one knows what the actual voting sample is going to be like. Every poll has an assumption about the voter turnout, but this is just a guess. If the final voting tally shows Republicans are no fewer than 2% below Dems, then Trump will win. If Dems are 5-6% (or more) numerous than Republicans, Biden will win. For example in 2008, Dems outnumbered Republicans by 7% points, leading to an easy Obama win. On the other hand, in 2004, Republicans matched Dems in voting population, leading to a Bush popular and electoral college victory.

[Rocky]

I would like to see a Republican ad along these lines:

Are you still voting for Democrats, just as you always have?
In case you didn’t notice, the Democratic Party has changed.

They are now in favor of rioting and looting.
They are now in favor of censorship.
They are now in favor of intimidation, “cancelling” on social media anyone who opposes their actions.
They will now tell whatever lies they need to tell, violate whatever rights they need to violate, in order to win elections.
They think the laws do not apply to them.

Is this your party?
The Democratic Party has changed. Why haven’t you?

[Walrus]

Talk about an energized base, check out all the Trump regattas, motorcycle rallies and vehicle caravans going on around the country. It’s simply incredible ! There is an historic wipeout coming on November 3rd Remember, all red up and down the ballot. 🇺🇸👍

[Alas Babylon!]

Is this the CBS/YouGov poll?

I’m been looking for the party breakdown numbers but to no avail. Where did you find them?

[frank ballenger]

Great ideas for anti Dem ads.

These would hopefully change some Macomb County, Michigan Reagan Democrats and others to come to their senses before it’s too late. And maybe some suburban women.