Ah, okay. I was curious, since I hadn’t heard of anyone not being able to just read a Facebook post. It wouldn’t have surprised me, though, if they had somehow blocked you from even that.
On that pop-up screen, though, there is usually a little “not now” button at the bottom center of the block that will let you at least read the post.
WHAT IF WE HAVE A CONTESTED ELECTION?
If there is a contested election, Nancy Pelosi DOES NOT automatically become acting-President. There are scenarios under which the House decides the outcome, but that does not automatically mean Pelosi is chosen. She might not even be Speaker of the House by the time Congress would enter the fray.
In fact, there are certain ways that having an election decided by the House could be advantageous to President Trump. More on that later.
Some of this confusion started when the President asked on Twitter if the election should be delayed. That idea was considered, discussed, and quickly discarded. Short of something much more catastrophic than Covid 19 … the election will be held on November 3rd.
Before we go any further, it is important to note that our “national” election is really 50 state-run elections. It starts in the states and many battles will be fought on the state level initially.
Twenty states launch recounts automatically in close elections.
In 42 states candidates may request a recount, but must be prepared to pay for the recount if they lose.
States to watch in that regard are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Why? Because each of those are battleground states and in 2016 Trump won each of them by about 1%. So, if there are concerns about absentee or mail in ballots, expect legal challenges to be filed here first.
Another interesting thing about those states: They have Democrat governors and Republican-controlled state legislatures.
Article II of the Constitution gives state legislatures authority to determine how that state’s Electoral College electors are chosen, but Governors must certify the state’s Electoral College votes. It’s not hard to imagine highly-partisan brawls breaking out between the state-level executive and legislative branches.
Next up, a 129-year-old law -- the so-called “Safe Harbor” statute -- requires all disagreements on the state level be resolved 6 days before the Electoral College meets. In this election cycle that would be December 8th.
IF state-level Electoral College disputes remain unresolved on December 8th – stand by for the LAME DUCKS!
Both houses of the CURRENT US Congress could called be upon to settle individual state disputes.
Legal Scholars warn Congress has not established clear procedures for how to handle such a scenario.
This is a VERY gray area. VERY murky.
Perhaps, with that in mind, the Supreme Court might step in. It’s important to note the 5-4 ruling in Bush vs. Gore came down on 12/12/2000. That was exactly six days before the Electoral College was scheduled to meet. So, the Supremes had their eye on the Safe Harbor statute and did everything possible to rule on the matter before it could be thrown to the chaos of the lame duck Congress.
KEY DATES:
Tuesday November 3rd – Election Day
Tuesday, December 8th – The date by which the requirements of the 129-year-old Safe Harbor law must be met. All state Electoral College disputes must be settled on this date.
Tuesday December 14th – Electoral College electors meet in each state and cast their ballots for President and Vice President. Each elector votes on his or her own ballot and signs it. The ballots are immediately transmitted to various people: one copy goes to the President of the U.S. Senate (Mike Pence). This is the copy that will be officially counted later.
Sunday, January 3rd – The New Congress is sworn in. Though this date might move to Monday, January 4th if the previous Congress so decides.
Then the BIG day. Wednesday, January 6th – Vice President Mike Pence, in his role as President of the Senate, assumes the chair and presides over a Joint Session of Congress to count and certify the results of the Electoral College.
During the counting it is possible members of Congress will object to a state’s allocation of Electoral College votes. If that happens an immediate recess is called. The Senate retires to its chamber. There would be separate House and Senate debates and votes on the objection. Both Congressional bodies must agree to the objection to block the counting of a state’s Electoral College votes. There have been Congressional challenges … the last was in 2005 … but none has been successful.
Now this is where it gets interesting.
There are several scenarios where, NEITHER Donald Trump, NOR Joe Biden has accrued 270 Electoral College votes by January 6th. As I said, I think the Supreme Court will keep this from happening ... but for snicks and grins, let’s game out some of the “what ifs”.
Maybe a congressional challenge succeeds. It’s never happened before, but who knows. Maybe all legal challenges are not resolved before January 6th. That seems unlikely, but we have seen situations recently where the Supreme Court had only 8 members. If there were to be a resignation or death, a 4-4 deadlock is at least possible. A 269-269 tie is also a possibility.
Regardless of how it happens, if no one has 270 Electoral College votes on January 6th, it is up to the NEWLY elected House to decide who will become President, and the NEWLY elected Senate will decide who will be the Vice President.
Assuming the Democrats maintain control of the House in the upcoming elections (which seems likely) the Speaker of the House – who may or may not be Nancy Pelosi -- will reclaim the gavel and preside over that process.
You might think this is automatically bad for Donald Trump. But wait!
Yes, it’s true Democrats will likely control the House of Representatives and the Speaker’s gavel will give those Democrats a lot of power, but look closely at the way the voting is supposed to takes place in the House.
Each state’s DELEGATION will have one vote. And guess what? Right now Republicans control more DELEGATIONS in the House of Representatives than the Democrats do! Today there are 26 Republican-controlled delegations in the House. Democrats control 23. Pennsylvania has an evenly divided delegation. Those, again, are the numbers at the moment, but they could change in the coming election.
Democrats could be expected to play Constitutional hardball or conjure up some wild parliamentary interpretations of House rules; but if Republicans hold on to that advantage in delegations -- and if the House Dems follow regular order -- Trump would theoretically win the voting in the House.
As I mentioned the Senate might be called upon to choose the Vice President. Again, each delegation gets one vote. Today, Republicans control the Senate and the Majority Leader is Mitch McConnell.
However, currently, the Real Clear Politics average of polls shows that out of the 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the coming election there are 10 toss-up races. Republicans are defending 8 of the10 toss-up seats.
So, it is possible Democrats will control the US Senate on January 6th … and Chuck Schumer could well be the Majority Leader. Who would Democrats pick as Vice President? Who knows? But the name Kamala Harris comes to mind.
Here’s another wild scenario: What happens if the new Senate deadlocks at 50-50? Apparently, Vice President Mike Pence would be called into a break a tie and could cast the vote that places him, once again, just a heartbeat away from the presidency. Can you imagine the howls?
If the Congress is put in a position of deciding the election – and that is a BIG IF -- It is at least theoretically possible Trump could be re-elected President by a Democrat-controlled House … and he might be saddled with a Vice President who is not a Republican. That’s just how bizarre some of the scenarios are.
Of course, the atmosphere is highly partisan. No one really expects that Democrats would suddenly become all that concerned about following the intent of the Founders – and half of the country will be seriously outraged no matter what action the House and Senate takes.
This is why I come back to my belief that the Supreme Court will be where this is settled.
Look, I admit it’s impossible to play out all the "what-if" scenarios. There is no way to answer all the “yeah, buts …” from armchair Constitutional experts. The thing could unfold in myriad ways. So many variables are in play.
One final word, there is often a blurring between people’s understanding of the Electoral College scenarios I’ve outlined – and the 1947 Succession Act which outlines what happens if a President dies in office or becomes incapacitated. This could, of course, be relevant if Biden were to be elected President.
The line of succession in those cases is as follows:
Vice President -- currently Mike Pence Speaker of the House -- currently Nancy Pelosi (but no guarantee she will remain Speaker in the next Congress.) President pro tempore of the Senate — currently, Chuck Grassley, R-IA
Secretary of State
Secretary of Defense
Attorney General
Followed by the Secretaries of:
Agriculture
Commerce
Labor
Health and Human Services
HUD
Transportation
Energy
Education
Veterans Affairs
Homeland Security