There is no second wave.
= = =
On that, we can agree.
The United States is a huge country, as big as Dublin to Moscow and Sicily to Narvik.
As such, there have been different “first waves” in different places at different times. It is noteworthy that in the Northeast, we are indoors when it’s cold (March) and in the Sun Belt they are indoors when it’s hot (July). This SHOULD shine a light on HVAC as a major, maybe THE major, factor in the distribution of the virus.
It is misleading to draw a single curve for “the United States” with two peaks, as if the rise in cases in NY in March also occurred in Texas.
Anyway, now that the wave in Florida-Texas-Arizona is receding, we see a curve with the same shape and timing as Wuhan, Bergamo, Paris, New York, and on the Diamond Princess and USS Theodore Roosevelt.
The fraction of the population which is rapidly and easily infected looks like about 20% in all those places.
I speak about COVID often, and I always say that about 40% of the disease is revealed, with about 60% still hidden.