While Trump has made some moves to chip away at the black vote, the biggest problem for the Democrats is that they followed up Barack Obama with two candidates who might be even less inspiring for black voters than they are for other demographics. At least Hillary had the “I’m with her” thing to go on. Biden is about as big of a dud as there is. He’s such a bad choice that I’m amazed he’s not a Republican. He’s a stiff of McCain or Romney proportions.
Trump is fairly popular with black men ... who don’t vote. Black women will vote for Biden in huge numbers, but will they turn out? It’s going to take a lot of cheating.
I have no doubt that Trump will outperform his 16 performance with black voters... he scored a relatively poor 8%, which was below average for a republican candidate.
However color me skeptical that he’s going to get some of the numbers folks are throwing around. Those huge numbers are when folks look at the subset of larger polls, which because of the small sample size have huge margin of errors.
If you sample 40 random people and get 25% approval you have a huge margin of error... but folks latch onto that number as though it’s representative and it’s not.
If Trump is getting 24% approval among blacks you wouldn’t need a poll to see it. It would be obvious on the ground. Thats a 300% increase over 16 and a nearly 240% increase over typical GOP support in the modern era.
You would see that kind of shift easily on the ground. You would not need polls to show it.
I do believe Trump will do better than 16 but I don’t see him getting anything near 20% support. Hell honestly all he needs is about 13-15% support and no democrat can win.
We will see come November but I am highly skeptical of folks running around closing 20+% approval of Trump among AA voters