On specific states.....
If Trump has completed flipping the Iron Range - which it sounds like he has - he WILL flip Minnesota. He was very close last time.
Wisconsin - the Kenosha riots and the inaction of the Democrat mayor and the Democrat governor turning down Trump’s offer to help early on has to have hurt the Democrats. I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance Trump takes Wisconsin again.
Michigan - Gestapo Gretchen has a knack for creating enemies. Trump is supposedly ahead already. I think he takes a Michigan again.
Pennsylvania - banning fracking which has revived formerly down areas of the state has to be very harmful to Biden. I’m not sure what the real polling numbers in Pennsylvania look like.
Iowa - I think Trump takes Iowa again. Agriculture is booming.
Arizona - last poll I saw had Trump up by 4. The Zonies stay in the Trump camp IMO.
Now as to Florida and North Carolina.....both are still Southern states (I’m from Florida and live in NC) but a huge influx of leftist Yankees has turned both purplish. They still vote Republican mostly though. White suburban women concern me. They have a visceral hatred of Trump. Still, from what I see, support for Trump is still strong in both states.
Two factors that will be important:
- the Big 10 not getting to play - clearly at the order of Democrats - while everyone else plays. I really do think this could swing elections in some Midwestern states
- the Black vote. If Trump can get 20 or even 25% like the polling suggests, that could have a dramatic impact on several of these states. Hell, just getting many to stay home and not vote for Biden could make the difference in several states. It did last time.
“Pennsylvania - banning fracking which has revived formerly down areas of the state has to be very harmful to Biden.”
but ... but ... Joe’s career as a lunchbox-carrying miner. What about that? ;) (His only lunchbox in PA was Roy Rogers.)