“Meanwhile, Erdogan’s got lousy relations with all his neighbors, and seems to just want to make those relations worse every day. “
Erdogan is acting like no one in the Middle East can recall their countries long subjugation under the Ottoman Turks. They all do remember it and it is not with fondness. Erdogan can make/buy a few friends of convenience, but long term wise Turkey has Zero chance of leading a hegemony in the Middle East again. It has about as much chance of that as would Japan in Asia today.
But alas, whatever follows Erdogan in Turkey will be worse.