Daines won by 18% in 2014. Bullock took only a 48.9% plurality when he ran in 2012 (thanks, Libertarians) and barely cleared 50% against Gianforte in 2016. He’s not popular and I cannot see him winning, especially tied to the corrupt and evil national ticket that spells lawlessness and chaos.
I’ll preface this with I ain’t got a problem eating crow and I hope I eat a big one this year with my predictions.
My predictions, Bullock (D) takes the senate seat, Williams (D) takes the house seat for MT. Daines doesn’t have much enthusiasm it seems. Not sure what is going on with the house race as it’s so far been on the back-burner.
2014 - Daines (R) ran against a literal political nobody who was a replacement candidate. Easy win at the time.
2016 - Bullock (D-incumbent) who has always been shielded by the media ran against Gianforte and won.
Democrats manage to get away fooling a large chunk of people in MT that they are libertarian leaning and then go off and run their mouths behind the curtain about their intentions. It works for them here. Bullock mastered this with being just a public figure and didn’t run his mouth until he tried to out liberal the coastal liberals in the presidential race this year. All his positions have already been forgotten...
For a better comparision, look at the 2018 race. Tester (D-incumbent) beat “Maryland” Matt Rosendale for the senate. Gianforte (R) beat perpetual-candidate Williams for the house seat. The percentage win were basically the same (50-47), flip for each race.
This time for the house, you got an open race of Rosendale vs Williams. My money is betting Williams finally gets her win.
There is enthusiasm for Trump here, however down ballot on the federal election, not so much. We’ll just have to see how that enthusiasm for Trump plays out carrying the other races.
Again, hope I’m wrong and people are disgusted with the democrats response to the whole coronavirus and antifa (which we are shielded from) bull that they vote heavily against the dems, however my feelings are these races are going to be much tighter.