In a first referendum on independence in 2014, the result was negative; 44.7% voted for independence and 55.3% against it in a turnout of 85%. But public opinion polls and voting in elections now show the opposite result, roughly 54% to 45%.
The Scottish National Party, the SNP, the supporter of independence within the E.U., has been increasing in popularity. In 2011, it won power in Holyrood as the majority party. In 2015, SNP won 56 of the 59 Scottish seats up for election. In 2016, SNP again became the largest single party, but with a few short of a majority, in Holyrood, winning 59 of the 73 constituencies up for election, resulting in SNP having 63 of the 129 seats, while the Conservatives declined to 31 and Labor to 24. The SNP is favored to win a majority in the devolved parliament at Holyrood in May 2021.
Scotland has 59 seats in Westminster. The SNP become the third largest party in Westminster in 2019, winning 48 seats, and was second in 11 others. In the referendum on Brexit on June 23, 2016, Scotland, contrary to the U.K. as a whole, voted 62% to remain and 38% to leave the E.U. All of the 32 council areas in the country voted to remain. The argument is that the people of Scotland do not want to turn their back on Europe, but rather want to play a larger role in the E.U.
Indications in recent public opinion polls show that support for independence is increasing. Most show that between 50 and 55% favor leaving the U.K., and about 45% prefer to remain. There is no one overriding factor, but various issues are mentioned.
I was in Edinburgh right before the referendum, There were YES signs everywhere.
Kinda surprised when the results were no but the reality is Scotland is just too dependent on GB.