The state was not regularly polled in 2016. RealClearPolitics only tracked two statewide polls, and they gave Hillary a nearly 10 point lead. The internet polls (not tracked by RCP) were only slightly less favorable for Hillary.
In my estimation, the gap was nearly closed by a last minute collapse of support for Johnson, and by Trump winning the undecideds. There may also have been some silent support (or, poll bias).
With Minneapolis succumbing to chaos, we should do better this year.
There's also a Senate seat and several competitive House seats in play.
Turn out will be key; also: appealing to the relatively large number of Libt's, and to smaller numbers of Other's and Undecided's.
and yet there’s the stupid Libertarian...meh
Wonder if Kanye is gonna try for the ballot there?
I would argue...within Hennepin County (metro Minneapolis county) that the 2016 vote for Hillary (429k, 63-percent of the vote) will NOT occur this time around.
I don’t think it’ll go past 350k votes. Trump still loses in Minneapolis, but state-wide....there’s going to be well over 100k more votes for Trump this time around, and easily his state to win.
Same for St Paul (Ramsey County)...Hillary’s 177k 2016-votes won’t be met, and Trump probably picks up another 15k votes there.
If Trump wins Minnesota Jason Lewis we’ll come with him.
Not factored:
- Trump supporters hanging up
- Voter fraud on Election Day
Flipping Minnesota would take some pressure off of Trump in Arizona which I’m a little concerned about. Picking up a Senate seat would be really nice too. Given that Doug Jones is a dead man walking in Alabama, winning one in Minnesota or in Michigan would make it very difficult for the Democrats to gain control over the Senate.
Polls are a worthless waste of time.
I’d love to see Minnesota flip and Jason Lewis flip the Senate and 3 houses.
Nice polling, just down .4%, so we might be up. What’s the party breakdown? Maybe some of the Libertarian/Others voters are really Trump supporters, who is not going to tell the pollsters that?
Had the election been a week later in 16 Trump would have carried MN... I fully expect him to win it this time
Any state he lost by less than 5 I expect him to win most if not all of them this time.
I expect him to win every state he won in 16 As well handily.
PA is my only concern due to mail in vote fraud. Not because he won’t win the state... but the mail in vote garbage is a huge risk for extreme fraud here.
11% more women than men were surveyed.
First, I’m VERY optimistic on MN. Baris has said repeatedly that his polling showed that without “Access Hollywood” taking a slew of early voters out, Trump would have won in 2016.
Second, I don’t do polls-—and Trafalgar is one of the two best with PPD/Big Data the other.
Even when they find “likely” voters, this time around both Bil Cahaley of Trafalgar and Richard Baris of PPD say identifying Trump voters is extremely hard. They are reluctant for a lot of reasons to say they are voting for Trump.
Third, I still don’t think the impact of 14 million college students largely being home, and not on campus has been factored in, just as the massive ongoing shift in black votes has not been captured.
I think MN is Trump’s.
HUGE, the polls are most definitely trending towards Trump. My suspicion is as the Dems ramp up their lies and vitriol they anger more and more people.
The GOP got absolutely demolished in the primaries. I can see Trump winning the state and losing a ton down ballot.