Posted on 08/20/2020 1:20:32 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
Biden (D) 46.9, Trump (R) 46.5, Jorgensen (Libt) 3.7, Other 1.2, Undecided 1.7 (p. 3)
(Excerpt) Read more at drive.google.com ...
“I think Trump has a decent shot at New Hampshire as well. One reason! Colleges Virtual. Students will be at their parents home wherever that may be.”
This issue isn’t being emphasized enough. Virtual colleges will cause a huge dent in the Democrat voting numbers. It might amount to over a million votes, and thousands in critical states.
While Minnesota has been a reliably blue state for a long time, that statement probably should come with an asterisk. In 1984, native Minnesotan Walter Mondale squeaked out a victory against Ronald Reagan by less than 4,000 votes. Against anyone else, Ronald Reagan would have won Minnesota. In 1964, 1968, 1976, 1980, and 1984, between Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, there was a Minnesotan on the Democrat ticket.
Although NH is more likely to flip IMO, MN is probably the second most likely. MN was always in play and even more so in the aftermath of the George Floyd chaos.
Trump will win all these “supposed by DNCMedia swing states”:
Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas.
He will also win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (which won him the election in 2016) but also Minnesota and New Hampshire.
And I think he has a good chance of winning Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and EVEN Oregon.
All this is said without massive cheating. The Trump admin is fighting this tooth and nail and is so far prevailing. Mail in universal voting is dead except in the bluest states.
Fauci coming out and saying no risk by in-person voting nailed that coffin lid down.
A SEA CHANGE is coming, folks.
First, I’m VERY optimistic on MN. Baris has said repeatedly that his polling showed that without “Access Hollywood” taking a slew of early voters out, Trump would have won in 2016.
Second, I don’t do polls-—and Trafalgar is one of the two best with PPD/Big Data the other.
Even when they find “likely” voters, this time around both Bil Cahaley of Trafalgar and Richard Baris of PPD say identifying Trump voters is extremely hard. They are reluctant for a lot of reasons to say they are voting for Trump.
Third, I still don’t think the impact of 14 million college students largely being home, and not on campus has been factored in, just as the massive ongoing shift in black votes has not been captured.
I think MN is Trump’s.
AMAZING:::
We have one candidate who is obviously senile, and slipping down faster each day...
We have one candidate who has diagnosed Bi Polar conditions & is unable to stay on balance for any length of time.
Then we have a very successful businessman who knows how to cut the fat out of government spending.
What a choice!!!!
HUGE, the polls are most definitely trending towards Trump. My suspicion is as the Dems ramp up their lies and vitriol they anger more and more people.
Third, I still don’t think the impact of 14 million college students largely being home, and not on campus has been factored in, just as the massive ongoing shift in black votes has not been captured.”””
I believe that college kids have been double voting for a very longtime.
I think they vote absentee from parents locations nd they vote in person at college.
One black college kid in Milwaukee ADMITTED to voting 6 times for Obama in 2008.
NOTHING was done about it.
“Wonder if Kanye is gonna try for the ballot there?”
Kanye West files to get on Minnesota ballot for third-party presidential bid — https://www.fox9.com/news/kanye-west-files-to-get-on-minnesota-ballot-for-third-party-presidential-bid
Filed papers on Tuesday.
“I think MN is Trump’s.”
I agree. Kanye filed for Minnesota on Tuesday. Kanye taking 1-3% of the Jihadi/Somalia vote could give the state to Trump.
Trump needs to make up just 40,000 votes from 2016, probably actually only half that.
Not what the stats say. They had a horrible voting record until 2008, the first time colleges were directly targeted by activists.
Voting from home is not nearly as high as in-person voting by college kids.
And given that MI State & other schools are also folding now, I suspect that 1.5m number may actually be higher.
The GOP got absolutely demolished in the primaries. I can see Trump winning the state and losing a ton down ballot.
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