If the Chinese take Taiwan, their first strike will be a barrage of missile and artillery fire that will wipe out every defense and military base in Taiwan with absolutely zero regard for collateral damage. The Chinese don’t care about people. They’ll kill millions if it gets them what they want. They’ve got a billion more where those came from, and they think DECADES in advance.
You seem to think we have some all-powerful military that can simply stop all attacks in place. The fact is, China would take Taiwan in under 24 hours. We have no response to that. In a long, entrenched fight, we can eventually beat back the Chinese. Will we spend $10 - $20 Trillion and 500,000 American lives to defend Taiwan? Will we risk a nuclear response to defend Taiwan? No and no. Never gonna happen. When it comes to China and Russia, we just don’t care THAT much about these little guys.
There is no artillery that can hit Taiwan from China.
China does not have the ability to project force across the strait if even one big navy joins Taiwan...whether the US or Japan.
US fighters can reach Taiwan from carriers, Okinawa and the PI. Our heavy bombers could saturate the skies with anti-ship missiles.
Remember, our weapon systems work...first time, every time.
So it would be an air-sea battle and no way China prevails. No need to strike the mainland.
Of course Taiwan may be a smoldering ruin afterward.
Well, I dunno.
If Russia came crashing through the Fulda gap there would almost certainly be a US military response. Likewise South Korea.
The US has alliance with the Republic of China, therefore it is a policy issue which depends on whether being an ally means anything or not.
real world hard crunch, but Xi won’t go there with this administration.
#5. You leave out several key “defense strategy” points for Taiwan (I was there, got briefed on certain issues in the early 70’s, etc).
First, we don’t know if Taiwan has nuclear weapons. They are NOT stupid people. Well educated, devoted to their freedom (my classmate was elected PM later on).
They can certainly produce enough nuclear scientists and materials to make basic nukes, and as the old saying goes, “one nuke can ruin your whole day” (Peking/Shanghai take not).
A lot of small nukes can remake the eastern, heavily populated cities/ports of Red China into junk pile in minutes.
No one knows what kind of sub delivery systems the ROC have. Even their smaller boats can pack a big wallop.
The same for underground shielded missile systems. Some could be in the mountains on the eastern side of the island and could get off their salvoes before being hit.
Invading an island about 90 miles away from the mainland is not the same as invading Quemoy and Matsu which are much closer.
Red China is playing “chicken” right now on the seas and are about to learn a lesson where the “chicken” gets its goose cooked.
Also important is that the Red Chinese are making serious influence/takeover moves in Mauritius, a radical Islamic country in the Indian Ocean (in a flanking move to Diego Garcia which they claim). The Maldives (Islands) are under heavy RC pressure and business infiltration.
Next would be Madagascar, which would control the whole eastern side of Africa and a good part of the Indian Ocean.
India is no longer sitting on their turbans/Nehru hats, but are instead building up their military in a serious counter-measure to RC influences and threats in the area.
So. Korea is going to build its first aircraft carrier, Vietnam in getting seriously worried about RC attacks on their border or on shipping, Thailand is silently worried, as is Burma (which has a massive border with Red China.
Only the Philippines is a questionmark now with Duterte being erratic and leaning to RC for political reasons and to piss off the US.
Other than that, “All Is Not Quiet on the Indian Ocean/So. China Seas Front”.