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I heard on good authority some years ago that the Hoover Dam was designed and built with a Safety Factor of 10.

They wanted to be able to build more...

As I understand dams, and safety factors, engineers look to different types of floods. For example, they would build a dam to withstand a flood that is typically expected to occur every 200, 500, or 1,000 year flood. So, I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing. I say that, because I'm an engineer, and each type of engineering has their own safety standards decided by their worldwide consortium of engineering societies. A bridge engineer may build a bridge to hold 10 times the weight he may ever expect could fit on that bridge, and that would be a safety factor of 10. With dams, I'd think (and I'm guessing, because I don't know) that the Chinese would have built this dam to hold back a 1,000 year flood, and perhaps a safety factor of 2, meaning it will hold twice the water that a 1,000 year flood will produce. At some point, it becomes wasteful to expend resources to the extent you think you can engineer all danger from a situation. Diminishing returns comes to mind.

Sometimes money that could have been spent "hardening" these mega-structures should instead be spent of infrastructure that can mitigate such disasters. For example, I'd have pretty darn good roads down river to be able to evacuate as many people as possible before I moved so many into place. I've read that if this dam fails, it will kill at least 200 million people, and possibly upwards of 600 million people. Regardless of how one feels towards the CCP, this human cost is going to be catastrophic, and will strain the world's ability to aid China. And, like it or not, we should be in the front lines of those who are there helping. It's who we are, and what we are about.

If this dam fails, it can be said that the CCP has lost the "mandate from Heaven" to rule the world, and the CCP will not survive the calamity. We have enjoyed the mandate from Heaven for many decades, because, though we may be like a bull in the China shop (no pun intended) we do try to do the right thing, though the last 2 - 3 decades, it has become open for debate. Pray for these poor people, and don't wish for the calamity to befall them, for it will be a truly human catastrophe, on a biblical scale. And God knows, I'm not a fan of the CCP.

A good post. It boggles the mind to think of the destruction of a number of people equal to the entire population of the United States.

I do not wish for it.

I believe it is out of our hands.

It is in God's hands. That is as many people as were killed in all of WWII, the Soviet Gulags and the Chinese political famines.

It changes the entire geopolitical structure in ways which are not easy to predict...

Beautiful and very informative post. Thank you.

May God bless and save the innocent people in potential danger.

They are all God's creatures.

200 million dam-building beavers once roamed the China northwest creating flood control wetland cornucopias. But starving communists eat all wildlife, and beaver fur makes a nice hat. There are about 600 beavers left.

Well spoken Sir. Thank you.