Better pay attention to the European model, it’s more accurate.
It certainly was last year. The big question in the immediate case is whether the Euro/UK models have accounted for a high level south-southwest flow which the US-based models project the storm will encounter early Saturday morning. The upper level flow from the south-southwest should counter the lower level south-southeast flow of the storm itself. Is the resulting shear enough to push the storm north? We’ll find out Saturday morning. Upper level south-southwest flow = shear = east coast storm. No upper level flow = more westerly path, maybe a west coast storm.
link?