I guess at Islamorada we would be at 34%.Once again we could track it if we had more buoys that actually worked. Not a big NOAA fan here.
The most recent (8 am) runs on the GFS (American) place the storm track offshore, running up the east side of Andros, hitting Grand Bahama and showing first hurricane strength winds offshore from Vero. Most recent run on the ECMWF (European) shows the storm not taking the northerly turn, tracking through the Florida Straits and running up the west coast.
Looks like NHC split the difference and called it a forecast.