Turkey has been sliding to an Islamism, with Ergodan acting like he is the new caliph.
The middle east has featured Turks and their predecessors the Ottomans and before them the Byzantines versus the Persians for thousand of years, with the Arabs, Egyptians and North Africans being variously part of it or caught in the middle.
For a time, the west had alliances with Turkey and Iran, with most of the Arab world (Syria, Egypt and Iraq) aligning with the Soviets.
Then there was the Iranian revolution of 1979. During the Iraq-Iran war, Iraq fought with military equipment that had previously been supplied to it by the Soviet Union; and, Iran fought with military equipment that had previously been supplied to it by the U.S. Except, both countries were in some kind of transition. The neo-cons thought to snatch Iraq and turn it into a western democracy. Instead, the neo-cons f’d up, and Iraq is today a vassal state of Iran.
The “moderate” Sunnis then started messing with Syria and Iraq. By moderate I mean Al Qaida as opposed to ISIS. These so-called moderates were backed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar and Obama via Hillarious Clinton’s state department. A three-way orgy of war and violence ensued, with Al Qaida, ISIS and Iran fighting in Syria, Iraq and Libya.
With Turkey’s drift into Islamism, it is now organizing Sunni a insurgency in Libya, making nasty faces at former allies of Israel, the U.S. and NATO, in addition to opposing Iran, and Turkey has a strange relationship with Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Turkey could be a real odd man out, if all of its neighbors were to gang up on it. It should to play its opponents off against each other, and limit its confrontation to one at a time. But, Ergodan is ambitious and he has to deflect attention from his country’s poor economic performance.
On the other hand, NATO is a joke other than the U.S., Poland, and maybe Britain. France acts like it’s a power to reckon with, but is stretched thin in francophone Africa. Germany and Russia have very good military equipment, but only small (Russia) or nonexistent (Germany) armed forces. Egypt looks to kick ass against Turkey’s faction in Libya. And, unlike Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, Turkey has no oil to sell, and relies - like China - on the export of manufactured goods. The Europeans can buy that crap from any number of other places.
Greece is in much better shape than it was a few years ago. It now has a center-right government, and a small surplus in its budget. With some creative exchange of debt for equity in state enterprises, its overhang of debt can be reduced to a manageable level.
Military-wise, Greece has a 100,000-man active component with 500,000 reserves. (It has large reserves because of universal military training.)
Turkey, on the other hand, has a formidable armed force, of 400,000 active and 400,000 reserve personnel. Turkey has impressive ground and air forces, and a budding navy. The navy includes a smallish-amphibious assault ship (or, light carrier). At 24 tons, as compared to our WASP-class which comes in at 40 tons. Turkey might think that it can push its weight around in the region and project force to North Africa.
Did you mean
At 24,000 tons, as compared to our WASP-class which comes in at 40,000 tons?
Turkey’s over reaching (IMO) all over the place.
Syria, Greece and Libya.
Germany may offer them some resistance in Libya (money, not troops)- but to curry favor with Russia.
Weird.
[But, Ergodan is ambitious and he has to deflect attention from his country’s poor economic performance.]
The Greek Navy is their strong suit.