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To: taxcontrol

Herd immunity is a universally accepted phenomenon. Some people dispute that it is a solution for Covid because they say people can contract the disease multiple times. However, there is a not single reported case of someone hospitalized with coronavirus (confirmed by a test) being successfully treated and then re-hospitalized weeks is months later after a re-infection. To me, that is solid evidence that a person can only come down with the disease once. Which is consistent with what scientists thought prior to the political winds blowing in a different direction. Which means herd immunity applies and likely explains why cases in New York have fallen to near zero.


17 posted on 07/21/2020 8:06:26 AM PDT by Stingray51
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To: Stingray51

Something like 8,000 people die in the USA every day. It has been reported that about 400 people died yesterday of Coronavirus. That means that about 95% of the Americans who died yesterday died of something other than Coronavirus. These are very rough approximations (not accounting for who would and would not have died anyway) but provide some perspective.

In New York State (population of 20m, 6% of the country’s 325m), about 500 people die every day. 8 people died in NYS of Coronavirus yesterday.

In crisis-torn Texas (population 30m, 9% of the USA), something like 750 people die every day. Last week, at its worst, there were a reported 174 Covid deaths in a single day in Texas, but that number was down to 65 yesterday. So yesterday, over 90% of the people who died in Texas, died of something other than Covid.

These are just back of the envelope approximations based on a state’s percentage of the US population, assuming that deaths are spread evenly across the year and the country. But my point is that the situation ranges from no longer being much of an issue at all in some places (such as NY) to being a significant but in no way catastrophic issue in other places (such as Texas).

People need to get a grip and let the economy function, kids go back to school and sports resume.


26 posted on 07/21/2020 8:30:27 AM PDT by Stingray51
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To: Stingray51
Herd immunity is a universally accepted phenomenon.

Just because it is "universally accepted" does not mean it actually exists. Witness the acceptance of the belief that the sun revolved around the earth.

Herd immunity is a concept that is pushed to make the acceptance of the risk of the damages and injuries caused by a vaccine to be socially acceptable. It is held up as a "benefit" to society. But there is no such immunity provided. What is called immunity is actually the lack of exposure.

In any population, there are two groups. Group A is those that are truly immune to infection. This immunity is gained by either getting a vaccine or by getting the infection and developing the antibodies. Group B is composed of those who are NOT immune. If you vaccinate / expose enough of group A there is a reduction in the chance that a member of group B gets exposed.

HOWEVER

This is NOT immunity. All it takes is for someone who is infected to expose a member of Group B to get that group member sick. That can come from a member of Group A who's immunity has warn off and then got sick, from another species exposure (say pig or cat) or even from someone outside of the population as a tourist.

To the point of gaining the infection, recovery and then gaining immunity, even that is in question:

From https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062612

While most of the relevant studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus, WHO noted that as of yesterday, “no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.”

“At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an 'immunity passport' or 'risk-free certificate,'” the WHO warned.

WHO said: “People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice. The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission.”

The agency later clarified in a tweet that it expects that most people who are infected with COVID-19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection. “What we don't yet know is the level of protection or how long it will last. We are working with scientists around the world to better understand the body's response to COVID-19 infection.”

30 posted on 07/21/2020 8:54:01 AM PDT by taxcontrol (Stupid should hurt - Dad's wisdom)
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