The COVID-19 incubation period — the time between infection and when symptoms appear — if they do appear — ranges from five days to two weeks. The symptomatic period lasts from a few days to two weeks for most non-hospitalized people. Voluntary testing (with results positive) is randomly done any time from infection into the symptomatic period, so on average, a person will have recovered from COVID-19 and will have developed antibodies and/or T-cells inhibiting re-infection within three weeks after testing positive.
One eighth of the country already tested is a very large sample, statistically. Applying the 8% baseline infection rate to the entire population, this means that every week after the beginning of April, another 2.67% of the people in the U.S. had recovered from COVID-19, were immune and non-contagious, and were not a threat to anybody. These numbers are additive. By July 17 (15 weeks), 40% of the country is now immune to the coronavirus, whether or not these people know it, and they cannot infect anybody else (for as long as the period of immunity lasts, likely well into the fall).
We can use the trajectory of the “hot spots” in March and April (which peaked about mid-April) to estimate the future trajectory of the percent of nationwide positive COVD-19 test results — which are now less than 2% in the former hot-spot areas — as the current set of “hot spots,” which are currently at peak, subside. I roughly estimate the following: for August, 5.4%; September, 4.0%; October, 2.1%. On the day you go to the polls to vote for either Orange Man or Senator Senex, by my estimate, 62% of the country will be immune to COVID-19, which is close to herd immunity. The pandemic will be long gone everywhere except in the lying media and in the hearts of the mask fascists and those afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Wow. Thanks. Science.