Excellent analysis and exactly what is going on.My emphasis has always been on the deaths. They are so convoluted you can't figure out what is going on which I'm sure is part of the plan. Make things so screwed up yet still relevant that no one knows where the figures come from.
Problem is we do know where these figures have come from and we are fighting back.
The chart below compares @COVID19Tracking 's weekly report-date deaths (blue bars) with today's update of the CDC's Provisional Deaths by Date of Death report (orange bars). Again, note the difference in the peaks & shapes of the curves.
I just go with total deaths: https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/COVID_excess_mort_withcauses_07152020/WithAndWithoutWeighting I keep in the mind the early peak was Cuomo killing the elderly, completely failed NYC hospitals, poor treatment options, killing people with ventilators, etc. Also keep in mind this is total deaths including all other deaths from deferred care, etc.
It also appears from the chart, although too soon to know for sure, that the deaths were what they call mortality displacement, or people who died a little sooner than they would have otherwise.