Posted on 07/16/2020 6:43:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new Monmouth University poll out today shows Joe Biden comfortably ahead of Donald Trump by 53-40 in Pennsylvania. Biden has a 21 point lead among independents and leads in almost every age group, including those over 65.
But if you ask voters who they think is going to win the state of Pennsylvania, it’s a different story.
Most registered voters (54%) say they were surprised in 2016 when Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. They are evenly divided on whether they expect Trump (46%) or Biden (45%) to win the commonwealth this time around. One reason for this seems to be that most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%). The belief in a secret Biden vote is somewhat more prevalent in Trump counties (32%) than Clinton counties (23%) and swing counties (23%).
The poll isn’t misleading as much as one might believe. Trump might have Biden right where he wants him.
Comparing the current results to a Monmouth University Poll taken in August 2016, Biden’s likely voter position is similar to Clinton’s summer standing in the swing counties, where she led Trump by 50% to 40%. Interestingly, Trump is doing slightly better now in core Clinton counties than four years ago, when he was polling at 21% to 67% for Clinton. Biden, however, is currently stronger than Clinton was in the president’s base counties, where she was polling at 27% to 60% for Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
The real secret is that Biden is a joke and people don’t want to vote for him. So, the polls are made up in order to make it look plausible when they cheat.
I am actually thinking about getting 5 sheets of plywood and cutting out T R U M P letters 8 feet tall and posting them on my front lawn.
Then putting lights and video camera(s)
It should be fun
Awesome graphic.
Biden wants to destroy the energy/coal industry and is supposed to win PA? Okaaay.
The “secret” group is the people being interviewed. They simply don’t want to admit to voting for Trump.
Bait for SJWs, should be fun!
Put some sticky stuff on the letters.
I know I have at least one SJW house on the block with an old Bernie bumper sticker & lesbo daughter who shows off her GF.
I bet a yard sign would last a couple nights, max.
More like a secret Biden non-vote. That is assuming they don’t remove Biden when the dementia becomes too much.
I’m guessing there are a lot of Trump voters like me that simply refuse to participate in polls. In fact I instantly block any numbers that come across my phone with a name like “Something Analytics” or “So and So Polling” in the title
I am guessing you are correct. We NEVER answer unknown calls (they can leave a message if it is important), thus eliminating any phone polls.
I'm praying that there is, but after four years of continuous brainwashing by the "media" I fear that many low information voters may opt for manufactured image of a kindly "uncle joe", and you might be shocked how encompassing the term "low information voter" is!
Bait for SJWs, should be fun!
Put some sticky stuff on the letters.
Don’t get complacent. Don’t make any assumptions about a “secret Trump vote.” Don’t assume polls showing a Biden lead are “biased and inaccurate.” Don’t assume polls showing President Trump with a lead are proof of an upcoming landslide victory. Take nothing for granted. We need to treat this election as a dogfight every step of the way, right up until the polls close on election day. We need to fight for every vote, get to the polls, and bring as many people as possible with us. Leave nothing to chance.
Someone here on FR had a Trump sign that kept disappearing. He got a new one and rubbed poison ivy all over it. It soon disappeared. A few days later the teenage son of the next door neighbors came down with a big case of poison ivy.
The “poll” over samples democrats by 17%.
The “tell” is the ridiculous 21 point lead for Biden among “independents”.
Not a secret. At all.
The only reason I can think of why someone would vote for Biden and that they really hate Trump.
Supporting Trump openly outside of a Trump rally nowadays is to risk your car vandalized and your home firebombed and your job at risk. Keep your mouth shut and live for Election Day.
Answering a poll honestly will get your name on a hostile s***list. Polling data is nearly worthless now.
People who merely voted against Hillary in 2016 (me) are now enthusiastic Trump supporters. They have to use the `German glance’ (looking over both shoulders) in the current climate but come November will get their revenge on the thought police.
Exit polling is equally dangerous. “No comment” should be your response to the BLM/Antifa pollsters lurking outside.
I never answer my phone if it is from an unidentified number or one that I don’t recognize.
IMHO, to completely disregard these trends in polls is just fooling ourselves-its the trend , not the conclusion. Look I hope we win, I think we still can but we were quoting these polls or trends when Trump was ahead and indeed Trump was leading in the more predictive betting odds right through everything (impeachment, Covid) until the last month until 6/1 see https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
Foolishly the Trump campaign (Parscale and Kushner) let itself get tagged as increasing racial tensions-the drop in the GOP internal polls and betting odds goes to the veryday Trump tweeted -you loot we shoot,
could have tweeted “we are against tyranny of any kind,individual like Floyd or mobs but that didn’t rhyme”, and Parscale and Kushner (who mainly just take lots $s and kiss up) then had Trump bragging about a million tix request in Tulsa when the whole city is only 400,000? They played right into the Dems narrative that Trump is all bluster. And attacking Faucci after spending months building him up? Look I never liked Fauci but that doesn’t get you white suburban women and Trump is the one who gave “Tony” a platform.
The base is secured -you can’t pretend that the base gets to vote 3x (the dems do that we don’t) we need independents and white suburban women-if you don’t think so, try spending some time in some counties that are predominantly African American-lots Trump hate-I saw lots BLM AND Biden signs, they are 13% of all voters and they vote 93% (sometimes 98%) Dem so the other side starts with a 10 point lead, its the block voting that we are up against. That’s why slo Joe will pick a woman of color for VP
Hopefully this is the low point of the campaign.
We need to believe and work like we are behind, the best move Trump has made in last 6 weeks is removing Brad Parscale from the campaign manager role and promoting political aide, Bill Stepien-
As Red Eagle Politics on youtube says, “Bill Stepien has managed winning campaigns before, even in blue states. This is good news, as he knows what he is doing. Hopefully he can carry Trump to victory!”
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