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The only important question is...which states,if any,that Trump carried in ‘16 will he lose this year? * Maine (second district) * Pennsylvania * North Carolina * South Carolina (if his popularity deteriorates further) * Georgia * Florida * Alabama (if Doug Jones has coattails to bring in Biden) * Mississippi * Arkansas * Louisiana (no polls yet) * Tennessee (Democrat senate candidate coattails wipe out Trump) * Texas * Kentucky (the hated Mitch McConnell is on the ballot, and people may vote Biden to spite McConnell) * Ohio * Michigan * Indiana (voted for Obama in 2008 despite its Republican reputation) * Wisconsin * Iowa * Missouri * South Dakota (no polls yet) * Nebraska (especially 2nd district, which Obama carried in 2008; no polls for rest of state) * Kansas (what's the matter...? Democrats won big in 2018, and the overall electorate is shifting left hard nationwide) * Wyoming (no polls yet) * Montana (popular governor running for Senate with Biden winning on his strong coattails) * Idaho (no polls yet, but heavily Mormon like Utah) * Utah (no interference from Evan McMullin, so those anti-Trump votes go to Biden) * Arizona (made a hard left turn in 2018, and favored Clinton in 1996) * Alaska Still in the Trump camp, but may change * West Virginia (strongest state for Trump, coal and natural gas economy) * Oklahoma (Democrats surging hard here but probably not quite enough for a victory statewide, given natural gas economy) * North Dakota (big petroleum and natural gas boom, which Trump favors, tempers the Biden vote) * Alabama (maybe Doug Jones just isn't popular enough to drag Biden across the finish line) * Kentucky (voters really don't like Biden according to polls) * Tennessee (maybe Senate race doesn't generate those coattails, primaries still yet to occur) * Kansas (Trump barely hanging onto the lead) * South Carolina (Trump barely clutching a narrow lead) * Wyoming, Idaho, South Dakota, Louisiana, Nebraska except 2nd district (no polls yet, so Trump might hold)