A Senate Takeover Is Very Much A Possibility For Democrats. Just Follow The Money

NPR ^ | 7/13/2020 | Domenico Montanaro

[Drango]

To take control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats need to net three seats in November if former Vice President Joe Biden wins, and four if President Trump is reelected.

That once looked like a near impossibility, but it's becoming a real possibility.

Republicans hold a 53-to-47 majority in the Senate, with the Democrats' side including two independents who caucus with them.

Five Republican incumbents are looking increasingly vulnerable, with their races labeled as "toss ups" by the Cook Political Report. Meanwhile one Democrat, Doug Jones of Alabama, is seen as being in real jeopardy.

Those five Republicans are Arizona's Martha McSally, Colorado's Cory Gardner, Maine's Susan Collins, Montana's Steve Daines and North Carolina's Thom Tillis.

Fundraising reports from the Federal Election Commission provide glimpses of Democratic strength. In Arizona, for instance, challenger Mark Kelly has so far outraised the Republican incumbent McSally by some $12 million.

ANALYSIS 2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Biden Has An Edge Over Trump, With 5 Months To Go In all, there are 11 states that Cook labels as toss ups or that "lean" toward one party or another. Republicans hold fundraising advantages in six of those states, but in several of those races, the Democrat's latest FEC report is a bit outdated, likely underselling the candidate's money raised. For example, challenger Cal Cunningham, in North Carolina, announced last week that he raised about $7 million in the second quarter.

So keep that in mind as you look at the how the money race stands in each of those 11 contests:

Democratic Targets: Arizona (McSally incumbent, toss up)

- Kelly, D: $31.3 million raised, $19.7 million cash on hand

- McSally, R : $19 million raised, $10.3 million cash on hand

Colorado (Gardner incumbent, toss up)

- Gardner, R: $15.7 million raised, $9.3 million cash on hand

- John Hickenlooper, D: $12.6 million raised, $5.9 million cash on hand

Maine (Collins incumbent, toss up)

- Sara Gideon, D: $23 million raised, $5.5 million cash on hand

- Collins, R: $16.3 million raised, $5 million cash on hand

Note: Gideon is the favorite to win Maine's Democratic primary on Tuesday.

Montana (Daines incumbent, toss up)

- Daines, R: $9.4 million raised, $5.8 million cash on hand

- Steve Bullock, D: $5.9 million raised, $4.1 million cash on hand

Note: Bullock's fundraising report only goes through May 13, while Daines' goes through June 17.

North Carolina (Tillis incumbent, toss up)

- Tillis, R: $11.7 million raised, $6.5 million cash on hand

- Cunningham, D: $7.7 million raised, $3 million cash on hand

Note: Cunningham's fundraising report only goes through March 31, while Tillis' goes through June 9.

Georgia (Perdue incumbent, lean R)

- David Perdue, R: $13.2 million raised, $9.4 million cash on hand

- Jon Ossoff, D: $4.1 million raised, $1 million cash on hand

Note: Ossoff's fundraising report only goes through May 20, while Perdue's goes through June 20.

Georgia (Loeffler incumbent, lean R)

- Kelly Loeffler, R: $11.7 million raised, $6.1 million cash on hand

- Doug Collins, R: $2.5 million raised, $2.2 million cash on hand

- Raphael Warnock, D: $1.5 million raised, $1.2 million cash on hand

Note: The election in November is a special election and would go to a runoff if no one gets more than 50%. These three candidates led a recent poll of the race.

Iowa (Ernst incumbent, lean R)

- Joni Ernst, R: $12.3 million raised, $7 million cash on hand

- Theresa Greenfield, D: $7.1 million raised, $4.7 million cash on hand

Note: Greenfield's fundraising report only goes through May 13, while Ernst's goes through June 30.

Kansas (Open seat with Sen. Pat Roberts retiring, lean R)

- Barbara Bollier, D: $3.5 million raised, $2.4 million cash on hand

- Bob Hamilton, R: $2.2 million raised, $2.2 million cash on hand

- Roger Marshall, R: $2.1 million raised, $1.9 million cash on hand

- Kris Kobach, R: $595,000 raised, $317,000 cash on hand

Note: The state primaries are Aug. 4.

Republican Targets: Alabama (Jones incumbent, lean R)

- Doug Jones, D: $11.8 million raised, $8.3 million cash on hand

- Tommy Tuberville, R: $4 million raised, $448,000 cash on hand

- Jeff Sessions, R: $2.2 million raised, $500,000 cash on hand

Note: The Republican runoff election is Tuesday. Jones' fundraising report only goes through March 31.

Michigan (Peters incumbent, lean D)

- Gary Peters, D: $15.8 million raised, $8.8 million cash on hand

- John James, R: $13.1 million raised, $8.6 million cash on hand

[MileHi]

Yeah, and Hickenlooper will be so much better.

[Richard Kimball]

There are plenty of recent examples that prove it takes more than money to win an election. Once the money gets over a certain level, it really doesn’t matter much.

True. Beto O'Rourke got more money than any other senate candidate in history, mostly dark California money, completely hid his agenda behind a facade of Willie Nelson, Whatabuger, and skateboarding, and still lost to a badly damaged Ted Cruz.

Another note: These awesome Democrat fund raising numbers came AFTER all the contributions to Black Lives Matter went to ActBlue.

We should definitely take the threat seriously. BTW, primaries are the time to have the purity tests. General election, you have to vote straight red. A crappy republican may be dragged into line. Democrats will do what Chuck and Nancy tell them to do. Except AOC. She tells Pelosi what to do.

[Kazan]

Violent Black Lives Matter Mob Viciously Attacks Trump Supporter at Pro-NYPD Rally and Throw Eggs at Police

Amnesty will be a reality if Democrats regain control of the government. You understand that?

[Lurkinanloomin]

Do you understand how many Republicans support it knowing they will be a permanent minority?

[Kazan]

Do you understand how many Republicans support it knowing they will be a permanent minority?

No, I don't. It's a handful at best and no Republican supported that immediately..

If Democrats takeover, there will be immediate amnesty and permanent Democrat majority. And, the country as we knew it will be over. Fighting against RIMOs in primaries won't even matter.

Suggesting sitting out the election and letting Democrats win as no different than voting for Democrats.

[Lurkinanloomin]

I never suggested voting Democrat or sitting out.

Rubio, Grahamnesty, Murkowsky, Hoeven, Hatch, Flake, Alexander, Corker, McCain all voted for the last one.

Flimsey Grahamnesty has voted for amnesty THREE times.

Tillis, Burr, Lankford, Gardner, Cornyn, Hyde-Smith, Collins, Sasse, Shelby, Ernst, Blunt, McConnell, Wicker, Portman, Johnson, Toomey, Rounds, Thune, Daines, Barasso and Enzi support the same agenda even if they won’t say so publicly.
They know they are setting us up for a one party tyranny and they don’t care.
They have been trying to complete the Bush Plan for North Mexico (aka USA) for 30 years.

(the Republic was over on Usurpation Day when both parties and ALL of our elected AND appointed clapped like trained seals for an ineligible usurper)

[dware]

Maybe so, but he’s better than Hickenlopper.

No, he isn't. He's a rotten leftist scumbag, just like chickenstroker

[dware]

So you want him to lose and have the seat replaced by a Democrat?

Won't be any different with Gardner in there. He's a traitor swampmonster. Piss on him. I can't wait for him to lose.

[dware]

Yeah, and Hickenlooper will be so much better.

Won't be any different than with Gardner in office. Piss on Gardner, the traitorous wretch. I'm done voting for RINO's. Give me a real conservative with balls to stand, or let it all go to hell.

[House Atreides]

“Gardner deserves to lose. He’s a filthy traitor.”
*****************************************
Yeah, let’s get a DemocRAT in that seat. Let’s get Chuckie Schumer to run/control the Senate. We’re SOOOOO smart!

[MileHi]

Won't be any different than with Gardner in office.

The hell it won't, especially if we lose the Senate. Then Hick can help Schumer.

I got my problems with CG. But I know, you are more conservative than thou. You are why we lose elections.

[HamiltonJay]

Jones is dead. So they need at least 4 seats to flip... and assume the GOP doesn’t flip any more.

Don’t see it happening

[Drew68]

NPR is a loony left organization. All taxpayer dollars to it must be stopped. A real twisted group.

NPR these days is more fair and balanced than CNN and MSNBC.

[Drew68]

hopefully we can keep the WH and with luck win back the House then we still have a chance to survive.

California's ballot harvesting election laws have ensured the GOP will never again control the House.

[dware]

I got my problems with CG. But I know, you are more conservative than thou. You are why we lose elections.

I've been a good, faithful conservative voter for 30 years now. I'm sick of being stabbed in the back. Let it all fall, far as I'm concerned. Then maybe we can find the cajones to do what needs done, and maybe some day, get back to a Constitutional Republic. By being faithful republican voters, we're still going to get screwed. Just in a different hole.

[rbmillerjr]

Dead-Ender logic.

Trump2020 and Straight Ticket for me.

[central_va]

Does it matter? The Deep State Bureaucracy runs the country in the way they want. The legislature is for show.

Policy? We don't need no stinkin' policy.

[dware]

Trump2020

I'll be voting for Trump this year. So long as he is there, a Rat House & Senate won't matter for legislation. But I'm done getting screwed by the spineless, traitorous wretched RINO's that ARE the GOP.

[DoodleDawg]

It’s a possibility. Whether there’s a good possibility or a slim possibility will be determined in November.

[rbmillerjr]

I will never again vote for the GOPe RINO like Romney or McCain, again.