You make good points...Rasmussen had Hillary by 2% shortly before the election in 2016; and I think she won the popular vote by a very close percentage- around 1% or 2%. There are a hand full of counties in states like you mention that will be absolutely crucial again, and even small changes from 2016 in the remaining counties of those states could easily tip the balance one way or another.
She stole the “popular” vote.