Trump’s had over three years to add judges, military experts (who can do more than ‘give speeches to Arabs’) and shore up military defense budgets.
China needs to remember the same press that thinks we’re weak, thought Trump was poor compared to Romney.... (Until Trump released data showing ONE store he owned was worth more than everything Romney owned ...)
So if I was the Chinese I would play this one smart and focus on China - NOT on the US) Pull back - there’s plenty of time to find a better path.
There are things we have that China doesn’t know about.
There are things we have that WE don’t know about.
It won’t be short no matter what happens.
It will have unforeseen consequences no matter what happens.
A dictator like Xi will always seek distraction and external conflict when their own position is weakened internally. Better to focus the masses on external “threats” than internal dysfunction.
Xi chose the wrong path with the virus and he has actively worked to alienate the world since. He owns the countries that voted with him in the UN last week, but it is not a very impressive list and his irrational behavior has made an Asian NATO alliance much more likely.