And it’s the existential threat from an Iranian attack from both north and south that are fueling the Gulf kingdoms’ coziness with Israel that never used to exist. Their thinking is perhaps that in the worst case, and Uncle Sam abandons them, the Israelis might be conducting air strikes on their behalf, if only to deny the Iranians the oil resources of the Gulf kingdoms. If such a thing comes to pass, and Israel does end up warding off an Iranian invasion, I’d expect these countries to do an about face and not just have off-the-books contacts, but institute full diplomatic relations.
The problem, of course, is that Israel would pay a fearful price in human losses. Israel lost 0.3% of its population in 1967 during the Six Day War, widely acknowledged to be Israel’s most overwhelmingly successful war to date since modern state’s establishment in 1948 (Tanakh casualty numbers are indeterminate). The equivalent for the US would be the US’s WWII losses, about 400,000 dead. That’s a huge toll.
In % terms, that was the number at which Truman saw fit to detonate two nuclear bombs over Japanese cities, to prevent any further American losses. Israel suffered 3x that % during its near-collapse of the Yom Kippur War in 1973. It is rumored that the Samson option, using Israel’s nuclear arsenal, was mooted by Golda Meir’s cabinet, and the appropriate warnings were issued to the relevant Arab capitals.
“I’d expect these countries to do an about face and not just have off-the-books contacts, but institute full diplomatic relations.”
It will take countries like Saudi Arabia two full generations of no propaganda to introduce full diplomatic relations with Israel. The Muslims have used Israel as their scarecrow since Israel’s inception. They have placed in the minds of their populace that Israel is behind everything evil that happens. If you get warts, it’s because Israel has put something in the water...that sort of thing. You can’t undo that level of social conditioning in a flash. The people thus conditioned will have to die off first.
In the meantime the Muslim governments will have to find a new exterior focus to blame all of their mismanagement and corruption on. As, I don’t see any of the causes that require an exterior focus going away.
The closest I have seen to normalization where a number of articles that floated the idea that Israel would be a part of the free economic zone that the new SA leader proposed on the Red Sea. I have not seen anything more in several years. That means that the free economic zone either couldn’t get funded or the idea of a Sharia free zone didn’t fly at home in SA. But the many mentions in articles about Israel’s inclusion seemed to be testing the waters. I am guessing it didn’t go well and caused much pushback in the Arab world.