Yes, late October was the first time Hillary cleared the 50% threshold. Biden did it in May this year. That is what people are pointing to as being different.
Except that late October polls are supposed to be the closest to the real election results with no time for comeback. Trump still clobbered Hilary anyway.
Quote: “Yes, late October was the first time Hillary cleared the 50% threshold. Biden did it in May this year. That is what people are pointing to as being different.”
And the media KNOWS it. Rather than learning the lesson from 2016 and letting democrats know exactly where they stand, I believe that they are going the opposite way.
Namely, “hey, we showed Hillary had a lead in 2016 but that wasn’t enough of a lead to dispirit the Trump voters. This time, let’s really poor it on.”
Hillary lost because her base didn’t turn out. That’s why these polls of registered voters are useless. The enthusiasm for Biden is about 10 points lower than for her. You do the math.
And don’t tell me that voters will turn out motivated by their hatred of Trump. They hated him just as much 4 years ago.
Bottom line: Biden peaked too early. Even the NYT recognizes that these numbers are motivated by covid and race. In November these issues will be ancient history.