It's a great question, and a chance to discuss how we got to where we are.
Public Health doesn't make money. Therefore, public health professionals work directly or indirectly for politicians.
In this event, the politicians have behaved very badly. They have demanded three things from public health: 1) Tell me how to have zero cases. 2) Promise that no one will be mad or sad. 3) Promise when I decide to "reopen", no one will become mad or sad.
This is really unprecedented. When I was 2 and 4 years old, there were huge polio epidemics in the US. Thousands of children died, tens of thousands were disabled.
The politicians of the day did not demand plans for perfect safety.
Even here, people who support "reopening" DEFEND their positions by saying, over and over as if it would make it true, that nothing will happen, that it's perfectly safe, that people who say it isn't safe are corrupt, or liars, or being paid by George Soros, and so on.
The fact is, NO ONE KNOWS what will happen with increased social interaction. Anyone who says they know is lying or doesn't understand the issues.
And the facts in the previous paragraph do not depend on CDC's credibility, or Fauci's, or Birx's, or Donald Trump's, or Nancy Pelosi's. NO ONE KNOWS.
So, to answer your question - we have to let people go back to work. But we have to do so in the knowledge that the COVID problem could get a lot worse.
And the problem with THAT is that this is not the America of the 1950s. No one blamed Harry Truman or Dwight Eisenhower for their child dying or being paralyzed by a simple virus.
But if we have out of control COVID in August or September (10%-30% chance IMO) Donald Trump and what he represents is finished. And that's one of the potential costs I never hear about from reopeners.
You said in your post: "...Even here, people who support "reopening" DEFEND their positions by saying, over and over as if it would make it true, that nothing will happen, that it's perfectly safe, that people who say it isn't safe are corrupt, or liars, or being paid by George Soros, and so on...
That is a broad brush you paint with, Jim Noble. You say that "...people who support "reopening" defend their positions by saying, over and over as if it would make it true, that nothing will happen, that it's perfectly safe, that people who say it isn't safe are corrupt, or liars, or being paid by George Soros, and so on..."
There are plenty of us "even here" who DON'T believe that "nothing will happen", DON'T hold that it is "perfectly safe", DON'T ALWAYS accuse those who have a different view are "corrupt , or liars" or are "paid by George Soros".
I happen to fully believe ALL of those things you accuse "reopens" of (I guess we have to start labeling people here now, too) are partially true in various situations and elements, although I think it is completely false to paint everyone across the board that way. on OUR side just like I think it is completely false to paint EVERYONE on THEIR side the same way.
There are many people on both sides who are just afraid and/or ignorant.
If we are going to have a "reasonable discussion" on this, I propose that we ALL accept that there are value judgements made on human lives ALL THE TIME. Constantly. Every day. And we have to start acknowledging that this is done, and should be done...right now.
Right now.
To establish the reality that we make value judgements on human life, we can ask the question: "Would you spend ONE DOLLAR if it was certain to save a human life?"
Most normal people, when asked that question, would not only give a dollar, but might well pull out their checkbook and write a check for $1000 dollars...if not $10,000 or $100,000 Dollars.
But if you ask people Would you spend a trillion dollars to save one life?" most people would say no, some even if it were their own.
Especially if you pose the question: "Would you spend $20 trillion dollars to save the lives of some Americans and in in the process, bankrupt your children's future, your grandchildren's future and your great grandchildren's future, plunge the current generation into poverty and want, and likely start bloody wars in the process that would kill hundreds of millions all over the world?" Of course, like the woman who has been offered a dollar to have sex and exclaims indignantly "What kind of woman do you think I am?" (to which the man responds that had already been established and the haggling is about price) we need to accept the role of the man in this and begin haggling over the price.
There needs to be a discussion of where on that spectrum between ONE DOLLAR spent or lost and ONE TRILLION (or TEN or TWENTY TRILLION DOLLARS) does that worthwhile value lay closest to.
They are already talking about the next multi-trillion dollar package for the next wave. This has to stop, and stop now. This isn't the Black Death with a 40% mortality rate. This is something that affects large swaths of people, and simply closing it down across the board for everyone is not only NOT going to end it, it will certainly bankrupt us if it hasn't already.
It has certainly bankrupted hundreds of thousands of people and small businesses already.
So no. There are a lot of us "reopeners" as you have branded us who DON'T believe ANY of those things you accused them of are true across spectrum of the disease and a considerable number of people who want this to continue as an aid to, but we do believe that that it is national suicide to cater to what appears to be largely a Leftist effort (aided useful idiots and those who both afraid and ignorant) to close everything across the board again.
For what it is worth, I am one of the people who is potentially at more risk age-wise and co-morbidity-wise if I do. I will state here and now that my life is not worth mortgaging the future of this country. It is true that I might not sing the same tune if or when that time to pay the piper for my stand comes due. I have and have had a great life, I love life. But I won't countenance possibly saving my life in order to sentence my future countrymen to a life of want and despair.
The chances of that happening are close to ZERO, but there is a fairly good chance that the media and democrats will be able to convince fearful dopes that a serious second wave is happening using a round the clock coverage of a few isolated populations in areas where basically no cases happened previously and lying with meaningless statistics.
Thanks Jim. I do believe we need to reopen, fully aware that there may more cases. Some media are reporting higher cases in Florida and other states that are reopening. However, what they don’t report is that this is most likely due to more testing as a high percentage of positives are asymptomatic. What they should be looking at is hospitalizations and deaths.
You are correct in that we don’t fully know but we also cannot destroy our country based on models that have proven to be faulty and experts that have so far been wrong about most everything.
I appreciate your explanation and position.
Thanks!
[So, to answer your question - we have to let people go back to work. But we have to do so in the knowledge that the COVID problem could get a lot worse.
And the problem with THAT is that this is not the America of the 1950s. No one blamed Harry Truman or Dwight Eisenhower for their child dying or being paralyzed by a simple virus.
But if we have out of control COVID in August or September (10%-30% chance IMO) Donald Trump and what he represents is finished. And that’s one of the potential costs I never hear about from reopeners. ]