Posted on 06/10/2020 11:59:41 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
Edited on 06/10/2020 12:46:30 PM PDT by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
That’s what I mean, just a link to your thread, not all the info.
I could do that each day, but I didn’t want it to look to
others like I was trying to hawk my own thread. Some folks
don’t like that I’m doing this, and I’m not trying to rub
it in their face that I still am.
It would be good if you could provide that link rather than
me.
Crap! I was just about to pull some money out for my Mom...
Maybe everyone else was thinking the same thing. :-(
I don’t have a problem with that.
My note just above explains my thoughts on it.
Thanks. Good deal...
Thanks Lil!
Hi, D1 - thanks again for all the work in these updates.
To be a bit of a devils advocate though, I AM looking at the trends over time, and shifts in those trends. Curve analysis and looking at subtleties in curves is sort of a specialty of mine (comes from my work, or, well, former work, it would seem). :-(
Deaths are obviously more than drifting downward since roughly April 21. That is great! It comes despite my next paragraph, so, kudos to our medical professionals, in particular.
However, not to be “alarmist”, it’s more like an eyebrow up from Mr. Spock: I see nothing in the total active cases that indicates anything but an overall leveling off of that curve in the last month. That’s better than strong growth(!), and, yes, we are slightly off the peak, but on the other hand, the last 8 days following the dip after that peak show a slow but steady rise in active cases. The dip and the slow rise both may be “noise”, but my overall take is that I see nothing here leading to well under a million active cases going into Fall. I hope I am missing something and if I am I would be happy to see it pointed out. :-)
Similarly, daily new cases have drifted SLIGHTLY lower the last couple weeks, but the drift is so slow now that, once again, I fail to see how we get to well under 1 million active cases by fall. The last couple weeks again may be noise, but, coupled with reopening’s (necessary) and a good part of the behavior I’m seeing “out there” (un-necessary / unwise, IMO, and does include the strife / disturbances across the country), the data may be early, but it does seem to fit actual behavior. Unlike the CDC, perhaps, I do not see this as an immediate reason to overreact or “scare the hell out of people”. But I do think people need more effective reminding that their behavior is what makes reopening practical, and I’d also like to see more PSA’s demonstrating effective mask usage and handling. I’d also like to see a LOT more of a push for general easy availability of N95 masks.
Put another way, I do NOT think the situation is presently getting worse. I agree the data does not support “getting worse”. But I think in the long run (Fall) we need the downward trend in daily new cases to continue to be at least as great as it was from late April - late May, in Jun - September. The last couple weeks are a hint that the late April - late May trend may not be continuing. Panic, no. Bears watching, yes. IMO.
I don’t think you are off base thinking in these terms.
I just think we’re being toyed with.
You don’t talk up sudden big number 48 hours before anything
shows up, and the the numbers mysteriously go up by 40.0%
out of the blue.
Small growth, sure. That can happen, and is to be expected
as a real possibility.
40.0%????
They are lying.
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