On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
May 15 Fri 16139
May 16 Sat 16248
May 17 Sun 16355
May 18 Mon 16868
May 19 Tue 17249
May 20 Wed 17815
May 21 Thu 17902
May 22 Fri 17109
May 23 Sat 17133
May 24 Sun 17135
May 25 Mon 17114
May 26 Tue 17158
May 27 Wed 17166
May 28 Thu 17202
May 29 Fri 17204
I have not posted these numbers for a few days as the number of critical/serious cases remains about the same.
I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical data “ it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. While the death rate slowed the past two weeks, the number of people who are serious/critical remains at the high end of the range.
After closely following the data for two months, I have concluded the WorldoMeter data on the number of people who are serious/critically ill with Corona Virus is a SWAG. (Sophisticated Wild A$$ Guess). There is simply an overwhelming amount of anecdotal evidence being reported on the few number of people in ICU with corona virus.
Florida has started to report the numbers on antibody testing. As of May 29th 4.3% of those tested were shown to have the covid antibody.
Are any other states doing the same?
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/serology/serology_20200529.pdf
Weekly SARS-CoV-2 IgG and total antibody results for Florida Data as of May 29, 2020 at 9:25 AM (report produced every Friday)
Summary Total tested 123,552 Positive 5,474 Negative 118,053 Inconclusive 25