[exDemMom]

I would encourage everyone to go to the source and read the entire article before jumping on the “see, quarantine didn’t work and I don’t like it” bandwagon. The article actually goes into some detail about the modeling of the spread of disease and the various challenges that modelers face.

Diseases spread according to a specific mathematical function, called a growth curve. However, many variables affect that curve. Things such as how well people comply with the lockdowns and observe social distancing and proper hygiene—e.g., high or low compliance—affect the rate of growth. The model tried to account for various scenarios, from immediately removing all restrictions to slowly removing them and came up with a range of death tolls.

The article did NOT provide any evidence that the lock-downs didn’t work or were unnecessary. On the contrary, it acknowledged that those do, in fact, affect the rate of spread of disease.

[billyboy15]

Diseases spread according to a specific mathematical function, called a growth curve. However, many variables affect that curve. Things such as how well people comply with the lockdowns and observe social distancing and proper hygiene—e.g., high or low compliance—affect the rate of growth...

There is no evidence according to many that the "lock down" was of any benefit and in fact it may have caused more deaths than it saved. We have never had a lock down before and once we get the TRUE numbers as far as the fatality rate (which are just now beginning to come to light) we will all see the lock down for the farce it was.

[DEPcom]

“The article did NOT provide any evidence that the lock-downs didn’t work or were unnecessary. On the contrary, it acknowledged that those do, in fact, affect the rate of spread of disease.”

You are talking to the wind, a highly bias wind.

[Persevero]

I can certainly see that lockdowns would help in a narrow sense. I am very unlikely to get a disease if I stay home alone.

The argument is that they harm more than they help. Deaths of despair, delayed and cancelled “non-essential” medical care, economic ruin which destroys life giving infrastructure, ruining our immune systems, and then unless we stay hunkered down we will eventually be exposed anyway.

[logi_cal869]

Oh, Ok.

Please explain the dichotomy of San Francisco, Alabama and New York during the Spanish Flu, since I'm sure that you have your own example handy to reinforce the bias I perceive concerning your epidemiological ignorance:

• New York fatality rate per 100,000: 589
  
• San Francisco fatality rate per 100,000: 673
  
• Alabama fatality rate per 100,000: 869
  

Read this piece on New York Dept. of Health Commissioner, Royal S. Copeland's approach to Spanish Flu.

San Francisco is repeatedly-cited as the preeminent example of how "mitigation measures" such as masks work with repeated denigration of the "anti-mask league", yet look at the fatality rates.

Alabama is all-but-ignored by 'lockdown supporters' - left and right - and for good reason: Below is a headline from the Spanish Flu era which literally is worded as though it might have been clipped in the prior weeks.

This citation from al.com's timeline of Spanish Flu in Alabama is rather apropos (and ironic, considering the dichotomy between AL & NY):

October 7: Governor closes public places..

Gov. Charles Henderson tells towns to close schools, churches, theaters and other public venues. Above, Gov. Charles Henderson in 1918 with pilot Ross L. Smith. During the Spanish flu epidemic, Henderson closed public places such as schools, churches and theaters to try to prevent the disease from spreading.

You CAN'T explain it rationally, nor can the truly scientific defend "models" which are written by those who harbor very distinct biases.

Have you learned NOTHING from 'climate change'???

Insofar as the "spread of disease", flattening the curve accomplishes only one thing: Extending the epidemic. Ultimately, without effective treatments or vaccine, there is only ONE effective measure:

Get everyone exposed who is not at-risk. If someone bothered to write THAT model, I'd put $$ on the table that this pandemic would be over by August and, most-notably, that deaths would ultimately be lower overall.

Unpopular as it is, the so-called "2nd wave" of Spanish Flu was NOT due to action or lack of action by various states but, rather one simple fact: It had not yet run through the population to achieve the immunity which afforded their descendants greater protection against later epidemics. Virally-speaking: Humans control NOTHING but humans.

"Control" being the key word.

[StAnDeliver]

"The article did NOT provide any evidence that the lock-downs didn’t work or were unnecessary. On the contrary, it acknowledged that those do, in fact, affect the rate of spread of disease."

I see your Minnesota and raise you Sweden, fearhun.

Sweden’s Coronavirus Experiment

"Tegnell argues that the scales will tip: the better the job countries did suppressing the first wave of infection, the greater their risk of a second wave. He estimates that roughly 25% of Swedes have been exposed. The more people who are immune, the harder it is for the virus to spread; full herd immunity in a homogeneous population comes at 60% or so.

Trust your citizens to be prudent about social distancing and stay home if they’re sick. Keep the number of cases low enough so hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. Isolate the most vulnerable while allowing the disease to spread gradually through the rest of the population, most of whom will get only mildly ill. That will increase resilience. Such a strategy can be tolerated for years, in case that’s how long it takes for a vaccine and antiviral drugs to be developed. “The Swedish strategy is sustainable for a long, long time,” Tegnell said in the interview.

Polls of Swedes show strong support for Tegnell’s approach... Michael Ryan, who runs the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, said on April 29 that “if we are to reach a new normal, in many ways Sweden represents a future model.”

[StAnDeliver]

" (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org) "

You have the gall to be a fearhun and yet use the Debt Clock as your tagline? Wow. Just WOW.