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To: JohnRand
This is not science. For it to be science, the scientists would have to explain WHY their model was differing from reality? Did they overestimate person to person transmission? Did they overestimate rates of personal interactions where transmission was possible? Are their statistics for disease progression after infection wrong?

What? Or are they just stabbing in the dark and not asking and answering questions about WHAT precisely they are getting wrong.

This is not science. It's BS and those who are listening to it are fools.

Someone somewhere must know what they are doing. They can still get wrong answer, but at least they are searching for why their answers are wrong.

15 posted on 05/27/2020 4:01:29 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: AndyJackson

What is interesting is that in politically-charged issues, the models always seem to be wrong in the same direction.

In real science, modeling is a useful tool, and when models are first developed, they’re almost always pretty sloppy - but sloppy in a general way, so that some give results that are too high, some too low, so that as they are “sharpened up”, they usually converge close enough to reality to be of some use.

But “climate change” models always run hot - of the several score that are prominent all (or maybe all but one Russian one) always predict temperatures that are too high, and often way too high.

And from what I’ve seen, the same is true of the pandemic models - they always run “morbid” - every one I’ve come across predicts more deaths - and often way more deaths - than actually occur.

And when the models don’t fail in both directions, that suggests either the modelers all accept erroneous assumptions they refuse to correct, or that they’ve deliberately got their thumbs on the scale for some reason other than the search for truth.


64 posted on 05/27/2020 6:32:54 AM PDT by Stosh
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