The World in Revolt-A revolution is an act of hope, not a desperate throw of the existential dice

FrontPage Magazine ^ | May 26, 2020 | Michael Ledeen

[SJackson]

So far, two dictators have been toppled and have been replaced by interim governments (with a striking resemblance to the previous ones), and there is a civil war in Libya. There are demonstrations throughout the Middle East, and indeed throughout the world, driven by mass movements demanding greater freedom. But there are also many demonstrators who want more rigid governmental control, typically inspired by fundamentalist Islamic codes that would dramatically worsen the civil rights of women, members of other sects and faiths, and more liberal Muslims. It’s a fight, with enormous stakes for the people involved and for the world at large. The war in Libya, along with the virtual civil war in Iran, give some sense of the intensity of the conflict.

Perhaps there will be structural changes in the Middle East—people are working on new Constitutions all over the place -- but they have not taken place yet, and the “new order” may eventually not resemble the dreams of the democratic demonstrators, nor of those who dream of a new Caliphate. No one can predict what the world will look like in a few weeks, let alone months from now, any more than anyone anticipated the current situation.

This is quite normal, by the way. There is a widespread conceit that pundits or experts can predict events of great import, such as revolutions, but while it is certainly possible to diagnose a “revolutionary situation,” we are invariably surprised when it actually happens. This was the case with the Soviet Empire, for example. Several of us predicted its downfall, but none of us could put a precise time frame on it, and when it finally happened we were surprised at both the timing and the form it took (implosion rather than explosion).

Nonetheless, we can certainly dispense with at least three widely-accepted views of the Middle East, which have been effectively demolished on the ground:

          -- First, the myth of the “Arab Street,” according to which the Arab masses are somehow unmoved by the desire for freedom, and inevitably—as if it were a genetic imperative--rally around one strong man or another. We have seen huge numbers of Arabs willing to take enormous risks to remove their strong men and create a freer and more just polity;

          -- Second, the misguided notion that the Arab-Israeli conflict is the central issue in the Middle East. None of the revolts—whether in Arab countries or in Iran--was inspired by a demand that the regime act more forcefully in the “peace process” or do more for the Palestinian people. The uprisings were aimed at removing hated regimes;

          -- Contrary to the conventional wisdom, according to which revolutions are desperate acts of people in dire economic straits, the Tunisian uprising—the first in the Arab countries—came under generally good economic conditions (the best in the region) and was led by men and women from comfortable circumstances. True, the proximate cause of the uprising was the self-immolation of a young man prevented from selling vegetables on the streets, but the regime was toppled by demands of greater freedom and less corruption, not of bread for the hungry. 

With rare exceptions, revolutions are acts of hope, not a last, desperate throw of the existential dice. It is no accident that most revolutions and revolts are carried out by young people full of hope and hormones. The hope transcends national and regional boundaries as well as ethnic and religious divides, as we see today: Sunnis and Shi’ites, and even Ibadhis (in Oman) have demanded freedom and justice. 

The Chinese regime, which knows a thing or two about revolution, was quite prepared to believe that revolutionary passions had spread to the People's Republic of China, and cracked down quickly and viciously at the first sign of young Chinese organizing their own pro-democracy movement. Down in Venezuela, students demanding the release of political prisoners staged a hunger strike in front of the Caracas offices of the Organization of American States.  As their action started to gain widespread support and media coverage, President Hugo Chavez capitulated. We will no doubt see more such protests in the future. And the passions for liberty and virtue are very much on display in the United States.

Growing, no doubt.

[SJackson]

Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

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[Don Corleone]

Most of the rest of the world has seen what ‘free enterprise’ and the freedom of a well thought out constitution and the rule of law can do. They want a piece of it too.

[Da Coyote]

Just wait until after the Democrats cheat themselves into office in Nov.
Enough is enough.
We’ll have to deal with them.
And our deal will be “no deal”.

[robowombat]

Ledeen was a very much an NR type never Trumpher. I don't know what his position is now. He, even before Robert Bork, the first political appointee requiring senatorial consent, that was treated to the Borking process.
Ronald Reagan nominated him to be director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency as the screaming over Reagan the war monger was ginning up. Ledeen was a skeptic on the whole arms control process and pretty much termed bureaucratic kabuki. The squalid Howard Metzenbaum organized a media circus of leftwing academics, ‘public interest’ figures as well as an attack on Ledeen’s credentials and he ‘human decency’. Because there were still some Jackson Democrats in the Senate Ledeen’s nomination passed. But this was a signal, the the Replidopes of course ignored, that the Demons would go scorched earth on any GOP nomineed for any fed position they chose. The Rats have improved their playbook since then with the sex abuse angle, but the borking process began with Ledeen.

[Ransomed]

“...the Tunisian uprising—the first in the Arab countries—came under generally good economic conditions (the best in the region) and was led by men and women from comfortable circumstances.”

I’m guessing the poorest people of Tunisia weren’t also the most likely to be obese. They probably weren’t the most entertained poor people in history either.

Freegards