Do you have any data that led you to this estimate or is it just your gut?
What's the highest number you've seen for nationwide infection rate in the literature?
Re: “Do you have any data that led you to this estimate or is it just your gut?”
COVID Tests Performed - 14.6 million
Positive Tests - 1.66 million
Positive Test Percentage - 11.4%
I have been calculating the Positive Test Percentage every day for about 5 weeks.
It has never fallen below 11%.
No one is reporting antibody test numbers.
Antibody tests will capture the millions of people who got infected and had no symptoms, or, had mild symptoms and never went to a doctor.
For perspective - the CDC estimates that a minimum of 39 million Americans were infected with influenza during the 6 month influenza season - that is almost a 12% infection rate.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm