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1 posted on 05/20/2020 9:56:15 AM PDT by grundle
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To: grundle

Too bad about the paywall...


44 posted on 05/20/2020 11:18:54 AM PDT by silverleaf (Great Things Never Come from Comfort Zones)
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To: grundle

FORTRAN? Isn’t that from the 1970s? Used to program it using punch cards, like ballots with chads in them. Maybe there is an updated version but I haven’t heard that word FORTRAN in years.


45 posted on 05/20/2020 11:19:17 AM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: grundle
The model was not a mistake but intentional and this "news" story is an attempt to cover that up.

This is a story of agenda-ists who used the work of snake oil salesman (and there are a lot in the computer modeling world) to push a worldwide economic shutdown to protect their global power.

This fake news does leave one opening though: if enough citizens demand that public policy can cite NO model that doesn't disclose all the raw data, cannot be replicated, and is not confirmed by an entity under the jurisdiction of the public policy owners.

46 posted on 05/20/2020 11:20:48 AM PDT by T.B. Yoits (The Flugaloo has begun.)
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To: grundle
Criticize the program all you want but the problem almost certainly goes back to three input numbers: "how likely is person A to infect person B?", "during what time period will person B be infectious?" and "how likely is person B to die if infected?" Those three were guesses at the beginning. Doubly so since China and the WHO lied about the disease progression in China.

For computer modelling to work you have to constantly adjust it as you learn real results.

47 posted on 05/20/2020 11:21:58 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (Parachutes are only anecdotally effective due to the lack of significant double blind testing.)
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To: grundle

The boss of a top software firm asks why the Government failed to get a second opinion from a computer scientist

**********

There’s a good part of the problem right there. People still hiding from the reality that the gov is very much involved in producing and perpetuating the frauds.


52 posted on 05/20/2020 11:36:28 AM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: grundle

I’m more interested in the algorithm than the language that it is written in.


55 posted on 05/20/2020 11:51:59 AM PDT by wiley (John 16:33: "In the world you have tribulation, but take courage; I have overcome the world.")
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To: grundle

“Imperial’s model appears to be based on a programming language called Fortran, which was old news 20 years ago and, guess what, was the code used for Mariner 1. This outdated language contains inherent problems with its grammar and the way it assigns values, which can give way to multiple design flaws and numerical inaccuracies. One file alone in the Imperial model contained 15,000 lines of code.”

Fortran got our ICBMs to hit within 50 meters of their targets in the Pacific, not to mention the accuracy of Mariner 1, so I wouldn’t, necessarily, denigrate it.


56 posted on 05/20/2020 12:06:39 PM PDT by BobL
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To: grundle

Neil Ferguson has now made multiple wildly inflated disease models.

Last month Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, told Guardian Unlimited that up to 200 million people could be killed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke

Professor Neil Ferguson, from the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, said ... the future number of deaths from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) due to exposure to BSE in beef was likely to lie between 50 and 50,000.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2002/jan/09/research.highereducation

And now the Wu-Flu.


63 posted on 05/20/2020 1:38:36 PM PDT by tbw2
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To: grundle

This was done deliberately to ALL involved the end justified the means these bastards don’t give a damn about anyone, ALWAYS remember what Schumer said when Trump tweeted about the intel community, that Trump would regret the day because intel have ways of getting you you never dreamed possible!! These bastards have a DEEP HATRED of Trump and if WE get in the way SO BE IT!!!


75 posted on 05/20/2020 4:39:14 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: grundle

He did it in FORTAN? FORTRAN was old when I was in High School. I graduated in the 90’s.

Had to remain conversant in it, as some old PLC and DCS programs have it, but I haven’t seen any “new” programs in fortan since... well since the one I wrote in Basics of Programming for Chemical Engineers.

That was 1995 .


77 posted on 05/20/2020 4:40:47 PM PDT by redgolum (If this culture today is civilization, I will be the barbarian)
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To: grundle

FORTRAN is the basis of most numerical electromagnetic design. Most of your antenna designs and some of the semiconductors were researched using it, and when the algorithms are ported to other platforms and languages the results are the same.
Only a few places do real modeling based on probability and conjecture. Many use one type of system because they have investments in a code base. Many also use FORTRAN because experienced, seasoned, professionals know it best. It also has a lot of things coded that worked in other problems.
Blaming FORTRAN is like saying the house was made of pine and not oak, and thats why it burned down.
If the model is terrible the language implementing it doesn’t matter.
This is a poor article.


89 posted on 05/22/2020 4:03:29 PM PDT by Dominick ("Freedom consists not in doing what we like, but in having the right to do what we ought." - JP II)
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