Let me guess, the numbers at this time in 2016 were telling a similar story. And probably so in 1980 and 1984 even.
Try 2008. Repubs looked “okay” but gradually Dems started getting good recruits, GOP polling suffered, the top of the ticket suffered......we are seeing that play again.
Recall nobody expected Dems to win 8 seats in 2008 but everything broke their way.