[Owen]

First of all, the numbers are wrong. Pre virus, the expected deficit this year was 1.1 trillion. Stimulus was about 2.4 trillion. The part that generates the real error here is that the original 1.1 trillion presumed economic activity that would generate tax revenue of an amount that partly offset the spending that created 1.1 trillion deficit.

We aren’t going to have that economic activity. It doesn’t matter if you’re locked down or not. There is no functional economic difference between lockdown and people choosing not to infect themselves at a crowded restaurant. They are the same thing economically.

So airlines will have a huge loss this year. The oil industry will have a huge loss mostly from low oil price. The cruise industry is crushed and will not be a contributor tax revenue. Sports are dead and probably will stay that way and they won’t be paying any taxes either. Disneyland Shanghai just reopened with a limit of 20% on park capacity. They’ll probably shut down again when it’s clear people are not going to come into crowds and infect themselves.

So the number is 3.7 trillion and it’s wrong and it’s wrong low. You might want to call it more like 4.7 trillion. In Phase 2 of stimulus is coming. Might want to tack on another 2 trillion.

6.5 trillion is a reasonable guess for this year’s deficit. GDP will shrink substantially and a reasonable estimate of that would be 17 trillion, down from 21.5.

After this deficit the national debt will be about 28 trillion. Our debt to GDP ratio, best not to think about that.

[SecondAmendment]

Well, at least Bill Gates is happy ...

[faucetman]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling, STILL waiting......

Talk about a HOAX!

Just monetize the debt, end of non-problem.

[null and void]

Democrats talk about raising taxes to pay for the debt, while many Republicans talk about growing our way out of the debt through simple tax cuts. Neither will work, because the debt is driven by a spending problem.

Anyone who's taken so much as a single Home Ec class knows that a family budget requires keeping spending below income.

Eh? They don't teach Home Ec anymore??? When did that happen? WHY?

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.