Posted on 05/08/2020 2:00:25 AM PDT by BeauBo
Earlier this week senior defense officials in Israel announced that after years of Israel’s war-between-war campaign to drive Iran out of Syria, the Islamic Republic was finally withdrawing from the war-torn country.
The news came just hours after an airstrike blamed on Israel targeted a research facility in Aleppo in Syria’s north.
But the announcement also came as Iran is still regrouping from the targeted killing of Quds force commander Qasem Soleimani in January and as it continues to deal with the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and a disastrous economic crisis hitting the country...
Almost on a weekly occurrence foreign publications are reporting airstrikes- from the Golan Heights on Israel’s northern border to deep inside Syrian territory like Al Bukamal on the Iraqi border to Aleppo in the country’s north on Monday night.
The increase of tempo of strikes as well as the distance of the location of the strikes, deep inside Syria, a senior defense official said, are what is pushing Iran to withdraw its forces and close bases across the country.
Independently, Iranian-backed Shiite militias have also begun to withdraw from Syria as the civil war continues to wind down...
The death of Solemani... was a major strike to Iran’s plans...
But even if Iran and the militias leave, they have been laying down local infrastructure so that Iranian blood doesn’t need to be lost. The locals who align with them can fight against Israel and will pay the price.
Hezbollah has also been investing significant amounts of manpower and time into Syria and has been reported to be embedding itself into the Syrian Arab Army in order to guarantee its survival in the country.
So while the Iranians may be leaving, the reason behind their withdrawal may be more complicated than just Israeli airstrikes.
(Excerpt) Read more at jpost.com ...
“I think that settling the ISIS fight in W Iraq will be the next tipping point.”
Those tribes in the Anbar are so deeply indoctrinated with Wahhabism, it might take a generation to pass away, like the violent racism of the KKK in the South. They might be militarily subdued though for some time, if they don’t get foreign support (Turks, Gulf States).
Are military operations progressing well enough to achieve a significant pacification there, at some point soon?
“Internal conditions in Iran continue to destabilize as a result of disease, crop failure, and especially the loss of oil income”
The collapse of Iran’s available resources is truly epic. It must have an impact - quite possibly (probably) it is the real driver in the draw down. Military pressure and a constant stream of casualties add to the pressure.
More mission and less resources, until the donkey’s back breaks.
The Anbar tribes are mostly in it for the money. They have a long history of smuggling, shakedowns, highway robbery, and “security”. They are the sunni mafia. ISIS pays and has paid them very well.
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When the ISIS money is gone, things will quiet way down and the tribes will go back to shaking down the shia/Iranian rat line arms smuggling.
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There are Salafist hot beds in Fallujah and Ramadi, but money is the driver.
“It being the Middle East however, those Syrians now signing on with Iran, might well shift sides later, if the winds of fortune begin to blow in a different direction. Iran mostly has to buy or rent its friends.”
Truth, yes that is.
The Shia Mullahs of Tehran have been buying Arab-Palestinian support by being anti-Israel. They play on, but do not really care about, Arab-Palestinian opposition to Israel. It is all part of playing the game of “We are ‘better’ Muslim leaders” because we are more anti-Israeli than most major Arab-Sunni (Saudis, Egypt, the Gulf) leaders are”. But, the long game of the Mullahs in Tehran has zero, zip, zilch real care about “Arab-Palestinian rights”. If they - the Mullahs - could complete their utopian Shia messianic dreams, “Palestine” would be no more than a satrapy of a a Shia dominant caliphate. Playing on the Israeli-Arab Palestinian conflict is just a means to an end.
Yep. I hope that’s not for another 12.5 years or so, LOL
At a minimum
Ezekiel 38 is gonna happen somehow.
That’s for certain.
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