Are COVID-19 death numbers undercounted, accurate or inflated?

People on social media are again questioning numbers around coronavirus cases our country.

There are claims the CDC inflated the number of coronavirus deaths, to make the virus appear worse than it seems.

Some argue, someone's death could be counted as COVID-19, when they actually died from something else.

Debates have been circulating on social media that COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted, while some—even our country’s top officials— argue COVID-19 deaths are being inflated to make the pandemic seem worse.

CDC offers guidance to public health officials on the certification of COVID-19 deaths. The latest guidance was issued April 2:

The CDC says in the guidance: “If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS),” the guidance says. “In these cases, COVID-19 should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I with the other conditions to which it gave rise listed on the lines above it.”

In March, the CDC introduced a new code to accurately capture mortality due to COVID-19 on death certificates.

The CDC says when reporting the number of deaths, they may seem undercounted because the information usually lags a week or two.

We also got a question about the death rate from Rita Vitale asking: “Some are saying that the death rate can't be accurate without knowing who had it and who is immune. But isn't the death rate only correct for the time being and for those who are sick with it now or at least very recently? If someone had it in November, that doesn't effect today's death rate, right?”

“It’s a really good question. And some of the confusion comes up with the terminology,” said Dr. Pottinger. "We should make it clear, there’s something called a “case fatality rate”—CFR and case fatality rate is: among people with clinical illness who are diagnosed how many of them will die of that infection.”

“That’s different from the infection rate,” Pottinger said. “The infection rate is of all the people in a particular area who have the infection, whether or not they’ve been clinically ill and how many people will die.”

Now that we’re in phase for reopening, restrictions have been lifted for some outdoor activities like hiking or playing golf.

But the question is: what’s the risk of contracting COVID-19 while we’re either exercising outside or enjoying the outdoors - can it increase our chances?

It might seem obvious, but people still aren’t getting it. Experts say the key is social distancing and the more distance, the better.

“Being cooped up everybody wants to get outside—particularly with this nice, Spring weather,” said Dr. Chris Maeda with Pacific Medical Centers. “Is there a possible risk? Sure. There’s always maybe a small risk. But it’s so small.”

Doctors say whether you’re inside or out, no matter what you’re doing, remember to stay at least six feet apart.

“Even for running and cycling and you breath harder, maybe you should have more distance than 6 feet. The more the better is really the key with all of this,” said Maeda.

Tom Koester asked this question about hot tubs saying: “Can taking a hot tub or sauna have either preventative or therapeutic effect?”

“No, I’m not aware that we have reliable data that going to sauna or hot tub would help keep away the Covid,” Pottinger said. “But on the other hand, there are other great reasons to do a sauna or hot tub because it feels great.”

But and it’s a big but—experts say if you go to the hot tub, make sure it’s on your private property—not to other people’s hot tubs or communal ones.

“Just make sure you do it right, and make sure you obey social distancing rules when you do,” Pottinger said.

“If they are getting their numbers from the states, what accounts for the huge discrepancy as shown the previous post for NY State?”

Looking at WorldOmeter, it appears they are getting data from each county.

I also notice BNO New York numbers are different then WorldOmeter too.

Maybe someone could email WorldOmeter and ask them.

We are in the middle of a crisis, and the “important” thing is how well we are counting the dead people we can’t do anything about.

Give it a year, and let’s see if the total number of deaths in the country is more or less than the previous year, and is outside the norm.

It’s really a matter of semantics, as a lot of death info is.

If you aren’t going to count the proximate cause of death (like “heart stopped”), and instead are going to figure out what caused the event, you are basically making some educated guesses. Heart Disease? What caused that, were they a smoker, did they get scared, did they have low blood pressure, did they get an electric shock?

If I was dying of an illness, and took a medication for it, and that medication was keeping me alive, but then I got a side-effect from the medication and it killed me, why am I dead? Because my liver failed, or because of the disease I was trying to stave off with medications that destroyed my liver?

It’s easy to know that someone died of ammonia poisoning, but was it important that they had liver failure? And that the liver failure was caused by carcinoma that migrated to the liver tissue?

Well, is it possible to even know whether or not the person, who say, has heart disease, would have lived LONGER had he not contracted Covid-19?

I think the right way to code it would be to say that he died of heart disease *AND* he was Covid-19 positive.

Now, do we count it on the heart disease tally? Covid-19 tally? or both, is the question.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.