Posted on 05/04/2020 4:00:37 PM PDT by amorphous
I don't think we have to stop everything. In fact, I think we screwed up by putting blanket stoppages in place. But I think we have to take this very seriously and start making better plans to deal with it. Look at how countries who have had greater success have done it and implement some of their policies which would also work in the US.
No doubt the prez got some bad advice from those in charge of our HCS, whom he inherited from the previous administration, at the start of this.
Thanks.
But we have to get America re-opened or no one will be able to afford food and shelter soon.
There won’t be enough government deficit paid checks or printed inflation money to cover this much longer.
Venezuela actually took longer to fall than we have, hoping we are going to recover soon.
That is basically the Wuhan Chinese solution. They confined everyone to quarters, sealed them in and then picked up and cremated the bodies.
I am a card-carrying “Fearper” and I don’t believe June will be the month we see 3,000 deaths a day.
July I might believe—the lockdowns are being lifted very slowly and there is a long lag time between first contact and actual deaths.
Most folks around here will be deep in denial, but July and August is when this virus shows its teeth imho.
In mid to late March I was taking all the scary hockey stick graphs seriously and said we would know in a month one way or another which direction this thing would go and if the Flubros or Fearpers were right. Well that month is up and the verdict is in. From the footage of empty hospitals to the stories that anyone who dies with COVID-19 died from it and I am seeing this as another unfounded projection just to scare the sheeple back into submission.
Worldometers is a Soros funded Communist propaganda site. You don’t have any basis whatsoever for declaring them the most accurate. You just want them to be, and you believe them, no matter that their numbers have fluctuated wildly.
Johns Hopkins has the best data.
Yet the media and the Doomers don’t like going there for some reason:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases
If as some reports are suggesting, the actual “positive” cases are much, much larger than official estimates, with millions not even counted as positive only because they have not been given a test, but they have been infected and recovered without any official notice.
So even if “case” numbers increase, many, many of them will be already recovered folks just never officially counted before.
Therefor I think some greater level of herd immunity is already established. Those already infected and recovered will show up as “new cases” when they test positive, but many will really just be old never counted cases, and they won’t be infecting anyone, they won’t be infecting the vulnerable. I think THAT portion of the population is way larger than the official estimates.
Thanks for that link to the John’s Hopkins site. They have a lot about cases, but I couldn’t find the daily death count. While the death counts will have some bad data, it at least doesn’t have the variables that the case testing has.
I know our governor is going to be looking at “the data” on how the reopening is going. But it sounds like if they see that the cases aren’t reducing they will slow reopening. BUT - they are also going to be doing a whole bunch more testing, which will of course find more cases.
I’m not sure he (Inslee, WA) is smart enough to at least look at the number of cases as a percentage of the number of tests.
BTW - for yesterday John Hopkins had about 62,000 deaths total for the USA, and worldometer had it at about 68,000 deaths.
flattening the curve means extending the curve and actually making it more likely that the vulnerable will eventually be exposed.
I believe you’re both correct.
I was having a hard time understanding why we seemed to be stuck at 30K/day new cases and 2K/day deaths...until I looked at NYC and their bell curve, seemingly a 7 week duration, and realizing we have many places throughout the country at differing phases of such a bell curve.
The lock-down has gone on long enough though, where most places either had few infected or those that were more heavily have run their course and we’re approaching the 7 week curve everywhere.
I’ll be perplexed if we don’t see significant downward trend this week. Of course there may be a couple of ‘spike days’ but the trend should be the tail of the curve.
I think the main question is the impact of opening up. My feeling is that people will continue very cautious behavior out of fear. Long enough that it’ll continue to make new cases & deaths decrease. Outside that, how long might those that have recovered maintain antibodies? how long until most have contracted it? will it mutate to something as bad?
So I still have significant long-term concerns but I think we know so much more about what this is than 8 weeks ago. If we can keep finding ways of treating it then we can finally be confident to fully open everything. The best news...it appears we’ll never overwhelm the hospitals.
I am getting tired of posts saying it’s a “nothing virus” though. Given the lock-down, there’s no evidence to support that...and yes, contrary to what some think here, even Sweden DID make significant changes. So they weren’t a true control group - although it does point toward manageability.
2 cents.
Hospitals and local governments have discovered that to get on the gravy train they need to fake as many Covid-19 cases and deaths as possible.
The link you provide, goes to show you don't know the first thing about data, certainly not whats needed in terms of raw numbers - yet you want to make others think you're an expert. You probably thought when someone mentioned excel, they were talking 'bout you! LOL!
Maybe, maybe not. You provide no proof of your claim. One can only go with what’s available. That’s why I always give the source of data I’ve used.
Link to the report.
Has been badly misrepresented by the media.
To an informed person it’s pretty promising!
The fact that you run to a Soros funded communist propaganda site over other places with data, merely because it supports your “sky is falling” narrative speaks volumes.
JHU has the raw data as well, and a County by County data set and map. Worldometer doesn’t have this because Soros doesn’t want you to see the county level data and wants you to live in fear.
Drop the New Yawk metro from the U.S dataset and suddenly everything doesn’t look so dire.
Yours is a welcome reasoned view. I think in hind sight, a reaction to this kind of thing needs to better balance the economic disruption and the mortality. Very hard to plan for this from the Federal level. Would have been best to do it at the county level, with states providing funding but no direction.
Nightly news coverage doesn’t help. Anytime I see a politician with the signer in the little PIP I cringe. You know whoever it is is pandering.
It’s been absurd from the very beginning. According to CDC, as of today, 38,576 deaths due to this coronavirus. That’s 5.2% of all deaths since 2/1/2020 and, according to CDC’s own standards, the threshold for an epidemic is 6.8%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Weren’t the media reporting 65,000 deaths due to the coronavirus last week?
Where are they pulling these numbers from? This is absurd.
I agree.
Deaths in the USA ...
7,671 Deaths - Occur Every Single Day ...
Heart Attack - 1,774
Cancer - 1,641
Accident (all kinds) - 466
Asthma, etc. - 439
Stroke - 401
Alzheimers - 333
Diabetes - 229
Flu/Pneumonia - 153
Kidney Failure - 139
Suicide - 129
By the way... 90,000 deaths from corona virus in a population of 330,000,000 comes out to a death rate of .00027 over the next 30 days.
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