we really don’t know a whole lot about the extent of China’s blue-water navy.
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Sure we do. Bill Clinton had them on all our ships learning methods, and procedures, orders of battle and so on. Satellites routinely photograph them, Jane’s and others report on their specs and capabilities - along with hosts of other assets, not to mention the Chinese themselves.
Its not a blue water navy yet, BTW.
In my statement the word “capability” as opposed to “navy” may make my point more clear. China’s “blue water capability” is the nation’s ability to project military power overseas. It is a mistake to use a soviet-era military intelligence assessment of force with China. China IS NOT the Soviet Union and it is a profound mistake if we look at them like they are. Counting aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates, subs, etc in the Jiangnan shipyards does not provide an accurate picture of China’s insidiously complex procurement methods.
China is also expert at mis and dis-information. With respect to its naval capability, which has been a national humiliation to them, it is especially obtuse.
“The planned ultimate size and composition of China’s navy is not publicly known,” O’Rourke said. “In contrast to the U.S. Navy … China does not release a navy force-level goal or detailed information about planned ship procurement rates, planned total ship procurement quantities, planned ship retirements and resulting projected force levels.”
China intertwines its commercial and military activities. Commercial ship building in China has been rapidly accelerating since the beginning of the twenty first century. This is a military threat.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/10.7249/mg334af.10.pdf
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1000&context=cmsi-red-books
We, in fact, do not know a whole lot about the extent of China’s blue water naval capabilities. Warfare, after all, is the Tao of deception.