Posted on 04/21/2020 7:18:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In a world of "lies, damned lies, and statistics," we should consult the SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) source data to understand the current numbers and the methodology for classifying new cases and deaths.
According to the CDC website, as of April 18, there were 690,714 total cases and 35,442 total deaths. A footnote says the total cases include 1,282 probable cases and the total deaths include 4,226 probable deaths, which is 12% of the total deaths after only four days of counting probable deaths. This is probably the result of the new definition of "probable death" (see below).
The CDC began counting confirmed and probable cases and deaths on April 14, two days before President Trump announced his plan for states to reopen the economy, based on guidance provided by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) on April 5.
The guidance for probable COVID-19 cases and deaths includes three options: (1) meets clinical criteria and epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed, (2) meets presumptive laboratory evidence and either clinical criteria or epidemiologic evidence, or (3) meets vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed.
This guidance includes definitions for clinical criteria, epidemiologic evidence, presumptive laboratory evidence, and vital records criteria, but the threshold for "probable" seems "possible" in some cases. For example, for option 1, anyone who dies with a cough (clinical criteria, check) and exposure to a hotspot (epidemiologic evidence, check) could qualify as a probable COVID-19 death. Each option points to COVID-19 as a possible cause of death, but the absence of confirmatory laboratory testing weakens the "probable" claim. This new guidance will probably inflate the numbers, but the official CDC numbers presented in the media do not distinguish between probable and confirmed deaths.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
According to Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, “[t]he way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus[.] ... On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity — many had two or three.”
As in Italy, it is not clear why we would categorize every person who dies with a COVID-19 infection a confirmed COVID-19 death, if by confirmed we mean a causal relationship. In many cases, it would be more accurate to say COVID-19 was a contributing factor and to track the contributing factors as well. Otherwise, as we have seen with the faulty computer models, inflating the numbers will result in the misallocation of resources to fight COVID-19.
So are the deaths from Covid-19 falling too fast so they have to go to even more extremes to attribute deaths so that the emergency orders by the socialists can be extended even more?
I don’t trust anything coming out of the CDC or WHO, both are run by socialists with an agenda.
I was suspicious of this change when I first heard about it last week. The Virginia Dept of Health today has started publishing “probable” numbers in its daily updates. Only 3 of 324 total deaths are specified as probable. Breakdowns are also provided for total cases and for hospitalizations.
New York, I read, added a huge number with this new directive; I don’t see that information on their website. They do include data on comorbidities, though, and 89 percent of fatalities have at least one.
COVID. What do the numbers mean? We keep hearing about infections only. What about results of these infections? Is there a number for that also and is it so low that it destroys the narrative.
Been lied to for most of my 84 years so I find it hard to believe anything I hear.
What you just wrote is pretty much the trend worldwide. I’ve been following the statistics for almost three months now and, since early January, only the Republic of Korea is reporting more in-depth, consistent stats. Areas of heaviest infection are Seoul, Pusan and Taegu, all densely populated cities. The Korean government collects a broad swath of persons from an area where COVID is identified, puts them on buses and takes them to a testing center. The number tested per day has declined precipitously in the last few weeks because of a corresponding decline in infections. As of today:
Total Tested: 571,014 (100%)
In Progress: 12,721 (no results yet - 2.2%)
Negative: 547,610 (96%)
Positive: 10,683 (1.9%)
Deaths: 237 (2.2% of those positive, .04% of population tested)
Recovered: 8,213 (76.9%)
Active: 2,323 (21.7%)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1095848/south-korea-confirmed-and-suspected-coronavirus-cases/
For the time being, I consider these to be much more definitive statistics than anywhere else, including the United States, where only symptomatic persons, almost exclusively, are being tested. Furthermore CDC stopped keeping consolidated statistics when state testing labs started processing COVID tests.
“According to Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, “[t]he way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus[.] “
HEY SEEKANDFIND
Do you really have nothing better to do than post this nonsense every day? What is wrong with you? Why do you care so much about this? Are you being paid by someone to do this? You put up a garbage flubro post every single day, it’s ridiculous. It’s like Whack-a-Mole, no matter how many times I refute your garbage, it pops up again!
NYC has 13,683 Covid deaths already which is .15% of the population of 9,000,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assumed every single person in NYC is infected.
243047 people have been tested and 132,467 tested positive,
Only people with symptoms are being tested in NYC and only 54% of those with symptoms are positive. The rate of infection for those without symptoms is obviously lower than the rate of infection in those with symptoms of the disease.
If 54% of the entire city is infected (implausibly high) then the infection fatality rate is .28% (1.5%/.54)
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04202020-1.pdf
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator. It is estimated (see link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Co-Morbidities - 125 million people in the US have asthma, hypertension, or diabetes, which have an annual change of death of less than .5%
Diabetes https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/diabetes.htm
Lung Disease use stats for asthma
Cancer https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/common.html
Immunodeficiency https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4820073/
Heart Disease https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190131084238.htm
Hypertension https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db289.htm
Asthma https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/estimated-prevalence-and-incidence-of-lung-dis-(1)/methodology
Kidney Disease https://www.cdc.gov/kidneydisease/publications-resources/2019-national-facts.html
Liver Disease https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/liver-disease.htm
Pop with disease
Diabetes 34,200,000
Lung Disease use asthma
Cancer 2,800,000
Immunodeficiency 165,000
Heart Disease 121,500,000
Hypertension 95,700,000
Asthma 22,500,000
Kidney Disease 37,000,000
Liver Disease 4,500,000
222,665,000
Annual deaths from disease
Diabetes 83,000
Lung Disease
Cancer 606,000
Immunodeficiency 0
Heart Disease 647,000
Hypertension 472,000
Asthma 338
Kidney Disease 47,000
Liver Disease 82,500
Annual Death Rate
Diabetes 0.24%
Lung Disease see asthma
Cancer 21.64%
Immunodeficiency
Heart Disease 0.53%
Hypertension 0.49%
Asthma 0.00%
Kidney Disease 0.13%
Liver Disease 1.83%
The Virginia Dept of Health has a lot of data on their site as far as timing of cases, location, etc.
The Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association (VHHA) has much relevant data on current patient status; e.g., COVID patients hospitalized and discharged, COVID patients currently in ICU, how many on ventilators, total available ventilators, available beds, etc.
This is about maintaining the panic, so as to maintain the shutdown and the control it brings.
And to create massively more unemployment to give the Communist Democrats a better chance of electing their incoherent candidate.
RE: Do you really have nothing better to do than post this nonsense every day? What is wrong with you?
Nothing is wrong with me. If you disagree with the article, feel free to refute them as you are doing now.
Why do I care so much about this? Simple — to get at the truth.
RE: It’s like Whack-a-Mole, no matter how many times I refute your garbage, it pops up again!
I don’t know what there is to refute about my so-called “garbage” ( your words, not mine ). I never said I agreed with the author, and I never said I disagreed with you.
There are thousands of FR members and not everybody read your past posts or my past threads. They could catch it in this particular thread and read your particular thread.
So, feel free to file your data and re-post them later. I don’t object to them.
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