Posted on 04/20/2020 8:33:38 AM PDT by lasereye
Congressional Republicans continue to face a significant fundraising disadvantage against their Democratic opponents, according to newly released first-quarter campaign finance reports. These money woes will only increase GOP panic over their prospects in hotly contested Senate and House races.
The fundraising disparity is all-encompassing: Of the 10 most-competitive Senate races, Democratic candidates outraised their Republican rivals in eight of them—often by massive margins. Republican senators with built-in fundraising advantages were badly outmatched by lesser-known Democratic challengers. In the bellwether Maine and North Carolina races that will determine which party holds the Senate majority, Democrats raised more than twice the amount of brand-name Republican senators. Even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and GOP stalwart Sen. Lindsey Graham were outraised by their Democratic challengers.
For House Republicans, the outlook wasn’t much brighter. Even as House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy exhorted his candidates to step up their fundraising in 2020, the results for the first quarter of the year weren’t encouraging. Only 15 of the 35 Republican challengers in the most-competitive Democratic-held seats raised more than $300,000 in the last quarter, a rough benchmark of financial health. The party still hasn’t been able to recruit credible candidates against top Democratic targets such as Reps. Ben McAdams of Utah, Haley Stevens of Michigan, and Antonio Delgado in New York. Meanwhile, seven House Democrats who’ve been targeted by the GOP raised a whopping $1 million this quarter for their races.
Granted, fundraising isn’t the only predictor of political health. Some of the Senate fundraising gaps simply reflect off-the-charts Democratic enthusiasm for their candidates, a pattern that’s held throughout the Trump presidency. That’s a sign that Democratic turnout is likely to be sky-high in November.
And several red-state Republican senators who were outraised by their opponents nevertheless raised impressive amounts of money themselves. McConnell may have lost the first-quarter money fight against his opponent, but the larger context is important too. He has plenty of money in the bank and is running in a Republican state against a fairly liberal challenger.
On the House side, Republicans can also point to some success stories. Wesley Hunt, one of the party’s most celebrated recruits, raised nearly $1 million in his race against Texas Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher. Former Trump State Department adviser Matt Mowers nearly outraised freshman Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire. And Iraq War veteran Mike Garcia, the GOP’s under-the-radar talent in California, raised more than $1 million for next month’s hotly contested special election—a notably bigger sum than Democratic opponent Christy Smith.
But the silver linings were obscured by other alarming developments on the fundraising front. One of the biggest red flags came in Maine, a race that Senate Republicans badly need to win to hold onto their majority. Democratic challenger Sara Gideon raised a stunning $7.1 million in the quarter, nearly three times as much campaign cash as Sen. Susan Collins, who brought in $2.4 million. Despite a significant head start, Collins only leads Gideon by less than $1 million in overall cash on hand.
The fundraising gap was also pronounced in North Carolina, another must-win Senate race for Republicans. Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham raised $4.38 million in the first quarter, more than double that of Sen. Thom Tillis ($2.08 million). Tillis is reliant on a healthy cash-on-hand advantage over Cunningham ($6.48 million to $3 million), but that will narrow rapidly if he can’t keep up with the Democrat’s fundraising pace.
Republicans are hoping that Collins’s longstanding bipartisan brand and North Carolina’s conservative bent will pull the GOP senators over the top. But state polls are offering similar red flags to the fundraising figures. Collins and Tillis already trail their Democratic challengers in the RealClearPolitics polling averages, a worrisome position for any incumbent.
The House fundraising picture also is filled with political land mines for Republicans. In nine districts that Trump carried, no Republican candidates raised even $150,000 for their race—a Mendoza line of sorts for political viability. The list includes Democrats who are at the top of the GOP’s target list, such as Reps. Jared Golden of Maine, Antonio Delgado of New York, and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.
In New Jersey, the two highly touted Republican challengers to Rep. Andy Kim raised less than $100,000 combined in the quarter (not including loans that they contributed). Kim raised more than $765,000 and has banked $2.7 million for the race. This in a south Jersey district that Trump comfortably carried.
In the northern California battleground held by freshman Rep. Josh Harder, Republican challenger Ted Howze didn’t even hit $100,000 in the quarter. Harder was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country, bringing in more than $1 million in the past three months.
With the pandemic freezing fundraising efforts across the country, the Democratic financial advantage is expected to hold throughout the year. Perhaps some GOP senators will maintain their narrowing cash-on-hand advantage if their Democratic challengers can’t keep up their torrid fundraising pace. That’s a best-case scenario.
In total, these underwhelming fundraising numbers offer a sobering message for Republicans. If Democrats are able to parlay their financial successes into wins at the ballot box, they’re looking at the likelihood of retaking the Senate and holding a healthy majority in the House—at a time when Trump’s fortunes are also flagging. Maybe that reality will wake up Republican donors, and help their candidates stem the tide before November.
Republicans need better candidates.
LOL.. yeah, right
And HilLIARy had a 99% chance of winning
No need to wonder why Tillis is having problems raising money.
The Republican base is the hardiest hit by the shutdown they need their money to feed their kids. Most Govt. workers are working.
You’re right about that.
Who wants to give money to people like Tillis that stab us in the back regularly?
We have to get better at taking out the Bush League Republicans in the primary.
The RNC will have to share their cash and Trump will be helpful when he restarts his rallies which I expect to happen much sooner than people think.
And watch how the liberal media will go INSANE when he does begin to again draw 10’s of 1000’s just like before.
Lots of us send money to Trump, but not to weak-kneed GOP candidates. Trump has kept his promises. The GOP has not. (Other than the Turtle in regards to judges - and I am shocked, frankly).
OF course we know that Trump needs to have a House and Senate. But, the GOP did nothing when we DID control both chambers. It’s just hard to hold your nose and support them again.
We aren’t donating to Mitch’s group. We are donating to specific people
There is not enough cash to share to help in a big way. The candidates need to raise more money themselves. One of the reasons the House flipped in 2018 is that republicans were seriously outspent in lots of races. It is important that it does not happen again.
Yes, life is so hard.
Republicans need better candidates.”
The GOP held both houses for Trumps first two years. What did they do during that time - other than put obstacles in the way of building a wall, failing to enact Trumps immigration agenda, continue to fund Planned Parenthood, and - oh yes- leave CDC and FDA unreformed along with the rest of the swamping federal bureaucracies?
I wonder about the importance of cash since Clinton massively outspent Trump and lost. It is better to have more than less but you also need to campaign aggressively as Trump did and you have to have something to say which the folks want to hear.
LOL.. yeah, right And HilLIARy had a 99% chance of winning
What are you talking about? Are you saying that the Republicans are really out raising their opponents? Let me guess: You don't contribute to any candidates.
“One of the reasons the House flipped in 2018 is that republicans were seriously outspent in lots of races.”
The two biggest reasons Pubbies lost were:
1) Voter Fraud
2) Really bad (i.e. not-conservative) Candidates
When MCturdle Mitch spends 30million to insure Jones
is a Senator, because he would rather have a Dem
than a GOP Conservative who would oppose the policies
that allow China to own our important supply chains.
Mitch held the Healthcare vote up so McCain could vote it
down and Dems ran on the Republican failure, and GOP
had no healthcare plan.
Gop is still vulnerable to this idea, and truthfully
the only Republican with a plan is Trump. He is likely
saving it for the last week before the campaign for
his voter push.
The RNC isn’t allowed to contribute to the campaigns AFAIK. Maybe a limited amount is permitted. Bill Clinton broke the campaign finance laws in 1996 when he took DNC money and ran millions in attack ad against Dole. The Democrat advantage in the individual races is so pronounced that the RNC can’t balance it out anyway.
“Congressional fundraising woes”
Boo-Hoo.
And, I’m all out of tissue..
You don’t know what you’re talking about. For example, Dave Brat, one of the stalwart conservatives, got outspent 2-1 and lost. He’s the one who unseated Eric Cantor in the Republican primary.
I never give to the RNC. Because I don’t trust them to make good use of my money. Besides, they take their portion off the top.
I donate directly to the candidates of my choice. Sure, they may give part of the funds they raise to the RNC as “dues.” But at least they have the money directly from me.
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