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Well, most of Africa doesn’t get the flu. Also bad leadership, endemic corruption, systemic nepotism where the cream often falls and the turds rise to the top, and decades of mismanagement and underinvestment have resulted in health infrastructure that is significantly underinvested and woefully inadequate. This means that if COVID19 is more than just a flu, such nations would be absolutely hammered.

Now, seeing the deaths that happened in Italy, how the British NHS is close to being overwhelmed, and how NYC until a week ago was looking really bad, I get worried. Sure - Northern Italy may have a preponderance of old vulnerable people, the NHS may not be the best example to use, and Cuomo appeared to be quite unprepared. So, people may have reasons why that didn’t work there.

But my point is that all those examples are from wealthy geographies. If they don’t go on lockdown and let’s assume COVID19 is not just a flu, they have the ability to throw massive resources at the problem to fix it.

Countries like Malawi - and most countries in Africa and Latin America - are simply not capable of that. Already Ecuador is undergoing a very real crisis, and maybe when the flu hits Ecuador they also leave bodies in the streets or maybe there might be something about COVID19.

Either way, my point is this - poor countries (at this point) should practice strict social distancing and assume the worst. When the US reopens starting May 1 we will all (very quickly) see if things get better or things get worse. If they get better, the poor countries can reopen too. If they get worse, then the poor countries learn a lesson without having to pay the cost.

But poor countries simply cannot afford to assume COVID19 is nothing ...and be wrong.